Nato is losing its battle in Afghanistan because of tensions within the alliance, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The think tank said that the Taliban were stepping up the use of suicide bombings and expanding their operations into areas that were previously quiet.At the same time, Nato members are struggling to agree among themselves what constituted "success" in Afghanistan while the global economic crisis meant that military budgets throughout the alliance were coming under pressure.
"The western intervention in Afghanistan is faltering and a robust diplomatic strategy involving tribal outreach and a more co-ordinated international approach is vital to success" said John Chipman, the IISS director general.
"Counter-insurgency efforts were forced to adapt to changes in Taliban tactics and seemed to make little overall headway," the IISS says in its latest annual Military Balance survey.
"Without more positive developments and a more unified approach to the conflict, it seemed likely that some countries with troops deployed as part of the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) mission under Nato command might begin to reappraise their commitments."
Chipman added that the security problems posed a threat to presidential elections due later in the year. "There is a risk that it will not be possible to hold elections, or voter turnout may be below the minimum necessary for the ballot to be valid," he said.
The warning came as Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, told Congress that Afghanistan was America's "greatest military challenge" and added: "We have not had enough troops to provide a baseline level of security in some of the most dangerous areas – a vacuum that increasingly has been filled by the Taliban."
Canada and the Netherlands – two countries which deploy significant numbers of troops in southern Afghanistan – have already announced they intend to cut troop numbers there.
The IISS report points out that the Taliban changed its tactics after a series of defeats in open combat and was moving to areas where the Afghan government and Nato troops were fewer in number, such as the south-west provinces of Nimruz and Farah. They were now also active in the northern provinces of Badghis, Faryab and Badakhshan.
The IISS said the Taliban operations had also focused on "perceived areas of weakness", particularly the Afghan police who were poorly trained and equipped.
Nato's problems are compounded by the fact that many European allies do not share the US and UK governments' view that Afghanistan is at risk of turning into a failed state under Taliban rule.
While IISS analysts warned of the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, they also said that the al-Qaida leadership, in hiding in the tribal areas of north-west Pakistan, appeared to be weakening.
Asked about the impact of missile attacks by American unmanned drones in the area, Nigel Inkster, chief IISS international threat analyst and former senior MI6 officer, replied that "undoubtedly they had had a significant effect [in] degrading al-Qaida central".
The al-Qaida leadership had not recently been able to sponsor any significant operation in a western country, Inkster added. However, he added that India had become "very vulnerable to attacks by groups inspired by al-Qaida ideology".
Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, is facing increasing criticism in the west for failing to control corruption and lead an effective government. Christopher Langton, IISS senior fellow for armed conflict, said yesterday that nobody had yet declared themselves for the election. The US had not so far backed any candidate, he noted.
Yesterday's IISS report said that "to effectively pursue the campaign on terror", the Pakistani president, Asif Ali Zardari, will need to "balance growing US pressure for military strikes in the tribal areas with the Pakistani army's decreasing tolerance for such attacks".
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Nato Tensions Damaging Afghanistan Mission, Warns Thinktank / Nato Losing Battle Against The Taliban, Says IISS
Nato Tensions Damaging Afghanistan Mission, Warns Thinktank / Nato Losing Battle Against The Taliban, Says IISS
(NSI News Source Info) January 28, 2009: Tensions within Nato are undermining the west's mission in Afghanistan at the most critical period in the country since the invasion in 2001, a leading thinktank warned today.
The warning, from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, comes at a time when Nato commanders are urging governments to deploy more troops to the country, against strong European opposition. Nato is losing its battle in Afghanistan because of tensions within the alliance, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The think tank said that the Taliban were stepping up the use of suicide bombings and expanding their operations into areas that were previously quiet.At the same time, Nato members are struggling to agree among themselves what constituted "success" in Afghanistan while the global economic crisis meant that military budgets throughout the alliance were coming under pressure.
"The western intervention in Afghanistan is faltering and a robust diplomatic strategy involving tribal outreach and a more co-ordinated international approach is vital to success" said John Chipman, the IISS director general.
"Counter-insurgency efforts were forced to adapt to changes in Taliban tactics and seemed to make little overall headway," the IISS says in its latest annual Military Balance survey.
"Without more positive developments and a more unified approach to the conflict, it seemed likely that some countries with troops deployed as part of the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) mission under Nato command might begin to reappraise their commitments."
Chipman added that the security problems posed a threat to presidential elections due later in the year. "There is a risk that it will not be possible to hold elections, or voter turnout may be below the minimum necessary for the ballot to be valid," he said.
The warning came as Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, told Congress that Afghanistan was America's "greatest military challenge" and added: "We have not had enough troops to provide a baseline level of security in some of the most dangerous areas – a vacuum that increasingly has been filled by the Taliban."
Canada and the Netherlands – two countries which deploy significant numbers of troops in southern Afghanistan – have already announced they intend to cut troop numbers there.
The IISS report points out that the Taliban changed its tactics after a series of defeats in open combat and was moving to areas where the Afghan government and Nato troops were fewer in number, such as the south-west provinces of Nimruz and Farah. They were now also active in the northern provinces of Badghis, Faryab and Badakhshan.
The IISS said the Taliban operations had also focused on "perceived areas of weakness", particularly the Afghan police who were poorly trained and equipped.
Nato's problems are compounded by the fact that many European allies do not share the US and UK governments' view that Afghanistan is at risk of turning into a failed state under Taliban rule.
While IISS analysts warned of the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, they also said that the al-Qaida leadership, in hiding in the tribal areas of north-west Pakistan, appeared to be weakening.
Asked about the impact of missile attacks by American unmanned drones in the area, Nigel Inkster, chief IISS international threat analyst and former senior MI6 officer, replied that "undoubtedly they had had a significant effect [in] degrading al-Qaida central".
The al-Qaida leadership had not recently been able to sponsor any significant operation in a western country, Inkster added. However, he added that India had become "very vulnerable to attacks by groups inspired by al-Qaida ideology".
Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, is facing increasing criticism in the west for failing to control corruption and lead an effective government. Christopher Langton, IISS senior fellow for armed conflict, said yesterday that nobody had yet declared themselves for the election. The US had not so far backed any candidate, he noted.
Yesterday's IISS report said that "to effectively pursue the campaign on terror", the Pakistani president, Asif Ali Zardari, will need to "balance growing US pressure for military strikes in the tribal areas with the Pakistani army's decreasing tolerance for such attacks".
Nato is losing its battle in Afghanistan because of tensions within the alliance, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The think tank said that the Taliban were stepping up the use of suicide bombings and expanding their operations into areas that were previously quiet.At the same time, Nato members are struggling to agree among themselves what constituted "success" in Afghanistan while the global economic crisis meant that military budgets throughout the alliance were coming under pressure.
"The western intervention in Afghanistan is faltering and a robust diplomatic strategy involving tribal outreach and a more co-ordinated international approach is vital to success" said John Chipman, the IISS director general.
"Counter-insurgency efforts were forced to adapt to changes in Taliban tactics and seemed to make little overall headway," the IISS says in its latest annual Military Balance survey.
"Without more positive developments and a more unified approach to the conflict, it seemed likely that some countries with troops deployed as part of the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) mission under Nato command might begin to reappraise their commitments."
Chipman added that the security problems posed a threat to presidential elections due later in the year. "There is a risk that it will not be possible to hold elections, or voter turnout may be below the minimum necessary for the ballot to be valid," he said.
The warning came as Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, told Congress that Afghanistan was America's "greatest military challenge" and added: "We have not had enough troops to provide a baseline level of security in some of the most dangerous areas – a vacuum that increasingly has been filled by the Taliban."
Canada and the Netherlands – two countries which deploy significant numbers of troops in southern Afghanistan – have already announced they intend to cut troop numbers there.
The IISS report points out that the Taliban changed its tactics after a series of defeats in open combat and was moving to areas where the Afghan government and Nato troops were fewer in number, such as the south-west provinces of Nimruz and Farah. They were now also active in the northern provinces of Badghis, Faryab and Badakhshan.
The IISS said the Taliban operations had also focused on "perceived areas of weakness", particularly the Afghan police who were poorly trained and equipped.
Nato's problems are compounded by the fact that many European allies do not share the US and UK governments' view that Afghanistan is at risk of turning into a failed state under Taliban rule.
While IISS analysts warned of the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, they also said that the al-Qaida leadership, in hiding in the tribal areas of north-west Pakistan, appeared to be weakening.
Asked about the impact of missile attacks by American unmanned drones in the area, Nigel Inkster, chief IISS international threat analyst and former senior MI6 officer, replied that "undoubtedly they had had a significant effect [in] degrading al-Qaida central".
The al-Qaida leadership had not recently been able to sponsor any significant operation in a western country, Inkster added. However, he added that India had become "very vulnerable to attacks by groups inspired by al-Qaida ideology".
Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, is facing increasing criticism in the west for failing to control corruption and lead an effective government. Christopher Langton, IISS senior fellow for armed conflict, said yesterday that nobody had yet declared themselves for the election. The US had not so far backed any candidate, he noted.
Yesterday's IISS report said that "to effectively pursue the campaign on terror", the Pakistani president, Asif Ali Zardari, will need to "balance growing US pressure for military strikes in the tribal areas with the Pakistani army's decreasing tolerance for such attacks".
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