By DOUGLAS BIRCH Associated Press Writer
(NSI News Source Info) MOSCOW - February 24, 2009: When the United States was served an eviction notice from its only military base in former Soviet Central Asia last w
eek, Russia scored a tactical victory in its quest to restore military and diplomatic dominance over the energy-rich region.
The move would not just kick the U.S. out of a military installation in a volatile area with major gas and oil fields. It also promises to help Russia gain a choke hold over a critical transit corridor for troops and materiel needed to support of the Obama administration's expanded war in Afghanistan.
But by pushing the U.S. out, some experts say, Russia may be inviting trouble in a volatile region that could be ripped apart by surging poverty and rising Islamic militancy.
The sudden disappearance of American muscle could have a deeply destabilizing effect - and, if chaos follows, the Kremlin will find itself alone in dealing with the mess.
Up to now, the deeply unpopular Kyrgyz regime has been linked in its people's minds both to Moscow - due to long-standing ties of patronage - and to Washington - because of the base. If Russia becomes the Kyrgyz government's sole benefactor, popular anger might increasingly focus on Moscow alone instead of falling equally on the U.S.
The threatened eviction from the critical U.S. air base near the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek "underscores, of course, that Russia wants to ensure its sphere of influence in Central Asia," said Alexander Cooley, an expert on international U.S. military bases at Columbia University.
"But I think that more interestingly, it sets up this Kyrgyz regime as being more firmly aligned with Russia. And this is an unpopular Kyrgyz regime."
The Kremlin also needs to proceed with caution because successful American prosecution of the war in Afghanistan is firmly in Russia's interest.
So far, the conflict has kept the Taliban isolated in Afghanistan and Pakistan - and away from the territory of the former Soviet Union. Afghanistan shares borders with the other Central Asian nations of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
As Kyrgyzstan moved to oust the U.S. base, the Kremlin reached an agreement with Washington to permit the shipment by rail of non-lethal military cargo - to be routed through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan - headed for Afghanistan.
By allowing the shipments, Moscow lent critical aid to the U.S. effort, especially given increased militant attacks on military supply convoys in Pakistan - the transit country for 75 percent of supplies serving U.S. forces in Afghanistan.
Ultimately, Russia appears to be calculating its control of a critical military supply corridor gives it crucial leverage in other disputes with Washington, including NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia and plans for a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Feb. 4 said Moscow and its allies "are ready for full-fledged, comprehensive cooperation" in Afghanistan. But he implied that Moscow's help was contingent on U.S. concessions on a proposed missile defense system for Central Europe and on a halt to NATO expansion into the former Soviet Union.
Increasingly, it looks like Washington is the one going with cap in hand in the region.
Uzbek President Islam Karimov expelled the U.S. air base at the Karshi-Khanabad base in 2005, after Washington criticized the government forces' brutal crackdown of protesters in the eastern city of Andijan. Hundreds are thought to have died.
Now, human rights advocates allege, Washington has muted its criticism toward the Uzbek ruler in an apparent bid to curry favor with his regime. Karimov, who appears firmly in control, has recently indicated a desire to end the rift with the West.
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on Feb. 7 called on the United States and Russia to "press the reset button" on relations following the change of administrations in Washington. But so far, the Kremlin shows few signs of altering the competitive, and occasionally confrontational, approach it adopted during former President Vladimir Putin's second term.
Washington has said it will continue to try to prevent the closure of the airbase at Manas airport outside Bishkek, but any reversal now could prove deeply embarrassing to the Kyrgyz government.
During Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's Feb. 3 visit to Moscow, the Kremlin announced a $2.15 billion aid and loan package for Krygyzstan, an impoverished patch of the Tien Shan mountains. Minutes later, Bakiyev said his government had decided to evict the U.S. from Manas.
Russia and Kyrgyzstan both insist that Moscow's aid package had nothing to do the move to expel the U.S. military from Manas. The Pentagon publicly also said it saw no link between the two announcements.
But U.S. Secretary of Defense William Gates on Feb. 19 confirmed that Russia played a role.
"I think that the Russians are trying to have it both ways with respect to Afghanistan in terms of Manas," Gates said. "On one hand you're making positive noises about working with us in Afghanistan and on the other hand you're working against us in terms of that airfield, which is clearly important to us."
eek, Russia scored a tactical victory in its quest to restore military and diplomatic dominance over the energy-rich region.
The move would not just kick the U.S. out of a military installation in a volatile area with major gas and oil fields. It also promises to help Russia gain a choke hold over a critical transit corridor for troops and materiel needed to support of the Obama administration's expanded war in Afghanistan.
But by pushing the U.S. out, some experts say, Russia may be inviting trouble in a volatile region that could be ripped apart by surging poverty and rising Islamic militancy.
The sudden disappearance of American muscle could have a deeply destabilizing effect - and, if chaos follows, the Kremlin will find itself alone in dealing with the mess.
Up to now, the deeply unpopular Kyrgyz regime has been linked in its people's minds both to Moscow - due to long-standing ties of patronage - and to Washington - because of the base. If Russia becomes the Kyrgyz government's sole benefactor, popular anger might increasingly focus on Moscow alone instead of falling equally on the U.S.
The threatened eviction from the critical U.S. air base near the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek "underscores, of course, that Russia wants to ensure its sphere of influence in Central Asia," said Alexander Cooley, an expert on international U.S. military bases at Columbia University.
"But I think that more interestingly, it sets up this Kyrgyz regime as being more firmly aligned with Russia. And this is an unpopular Kyrgyz regime."
The Kremlin also needs to proceed with caution because successful American prosecution of the war in Afghanistan is firmly in Russia's interest.
So far, the conflict has kept the Taliban isolated in Afghanistan and Pakistan - and away from the territory of the former Soviet Union. Afghanistan shares borders with the other Central Asian nations of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
As Kyrgyzstan moved to oust the U.S. base, the Kremlin reached an agreement with Washington to permit the shipment by rail of non-lethal military cargo - to be routed through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan - headed for Afghanistan.
By allowing the shipments, Moscow lent critical aid to the U.S. effort, especially given increased militant attacks on military supply convoys in Pakistan - the transit country for 75 percent of supplies serving U.S. forces in Afghanistan.
Ultimately, Russia appears to be calculating its control of a critical military supply corridor gives it crucial leverage in other disputes with Washington, including NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia and plans for a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Feb. 4 said Moscow and its allies "are ready for full-fledged, comprehensive cooperation" in Afghanistan. But he implied that Moscow's help was contingent on U.S. concessions on a proposed missile defense system for Central Europe and on a halt to NATO expansion into the former Soviet Union.
Increasingly, it looks like Washington is the one going with cap in hand in the region.
Uzbek President Islam Karimov expelled the U.S. air base at the Karshi-Khanabad base in 2005, after Washington criticized the government forces' brutal crackdown of protesters in the eastern city of Andijan. Hundreds are thought to have died.
Now, human rights advocates allege, Washington has muted its criticism toward the Uzbek ruler in an apparent bid to curry favor with his regime. Karimov, who appears firmly in control, has recently indicated a desire to end the rift with the West.
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on Feb. 7 called on the United States and Russia to "press the reset button" on relations following the change of administrations in Washington. But so far, the Kremlin shows few signs of altering the competitive, and occasionally confrontational, approach it adopted during former President Vladimir Putin's second term.
Washington has said it will continue to try to prevent the closure of the airbase at Manas airport outside Bishkek, but any reversal now could prove deeply embarrassing to the Kyrgyz government.
During Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's Feb. 3 visit to Moscow, the Kremlin announced a $2.15 billion aid and loan package for Krygyzstan, an impoverished patch of the Tien Shan mountains. Minutes later, Bakiyev said his government had decided to evict the U.S. from Manas.
Russia and Kyrgyzstan both insist that Moscow's aid package had nothing to do the move to expel the U.S. military from Manas. The Pentagon publicly also said it saw no link between the two announcements.
But U.S. Secretary of Defense William Gates on Feb. 19 confirmed that Russia played a role.
"I think that the Russians are trying to have it both ways with respect to Afghanistan in terms of Manas," Gates said. "On one hand you're making positive noises about working with us in Afghanistan and on the other hand you're working against us in terms of that airfield, which is clearly important to us."
No comments:
Post a Comment