(NSI News Source Info) JERUSALEM - March 18, 2009: Ballistic missiles could be Israel’s weapon of choice agains
t Iranian nuclear facilities if it decides on a pre-emptive attack and deems air strikes too risky, according to a report by a Washington think-tank.
Israel is widely assumed to have Jericho missiles capable of hitting Iran with an accuracy of a few dozen metres (yards) from target. Such a capability would be free of warplanes’ main drawbacks — limits on fuel and ordnance, and perils to pilots.
Extrapolating from analyst assessments that the most advanced Jerichos carry 750 kg (1,650 lb) conventional warheads, Abdullah Toukan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said 42 missiles would be enough to “severely damage or demolish” Iran’s core nuclear sites at Natanz, Esfahan and Arak.
“If the Jericho III is fully developed and its accuracy is quite high then this scenario could look much more feasible than using combat aircraft,” he said in the March 14 report, titled “Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities”.
Israel, whose jets bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and mounted a similar sortie over Syria in 2007, has hinted that it could forcibly deny Iran the means to make an atomic bomb.
But many experts believe the Iranian sites are too distant, dispersed and fortified for Israel’s warplanes to take on alone.
Israel neither confirms nor denies having Jerichos, as part of an “ambiguity” policy veiling its own assumed atomic arsenal.
A veteran Israeli defence consultant played down the idea of ballistic missiles being used for conventional attacks.
“You look at any major Western military, and you’ll see that such strikes are the purview of manned warplanes, while ballistic missiles are reserved for nuclear-strike scenarios,” the consultant told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
I’m still curious as to why they are waiting. There has to be a moment in which Israel can do nothing more than take military action. Makes me wonder about what is going on behind the scenes in the intelligence community. Are they waiting to see if some covert sabotage works out? I think this whole situation is too complex for any civilian to truly understand. They’re probably taking every measure possible until the point of no return, not to mention their preparation for a likely retaliation from several fronts. Imagine having to prepare this kind of operation, not to mention preparing your own defence forces for what’s likely to come in the aftermath. Scary stuff.
Here’s more on the Jericho III
It is estimated that the Jericho III entered service by 2008.
The Jericho III is believed to have a three-stage solid propellant and a payload of 1,000 to 1,300 kg. It is possible for the missile to be equipped with a single 750 kg nuclear warhead or two or three low yield MIRV warheads. It has an estimated launch weight of 29,000 kg and a length of 15.5 m with a width of 1.56 m. It likely is similar to an upgraded Shavitspace launch vehicle. It will probably have longer first and second-stage motors. It is estimated that it will have a range of 4,800 to 7,000 km (2,982 to 4,350 miles), and probably significantly greater with a payload of 350kg (one Israeli nuclear warhead). It is believed that the Jericho 3 is inertial guided with a radar guided warhead and silo-based with mobile vehicle and railcar capabilities.
The Jericho 3 will give Israel nuclear strike capabilities within the entire Middle East and Europe. The range of the Jericho 3 also provides an extremely high impact speed for nearby targets, enabling it to avoid any ballistic missile defenses that may develop in the immediate region.
On 17 January 2008 Israel test fired a multi-stage ballistic missile believed to be of the Jericho III type reportedly capable of carrying “Special warheads”.
t Iranian nuclear facilities if it decides on a pre-emptive attack and deems air strikes too risky, according to a report by a Washington think-tank.
Israel is widely assumed to have Jericho missiles capable of hitting Iran with an accuracy of a few dozen metres (yards) from target. Such a capability would be free of warplanes’ main drawbacks — limits on fuel and ordnance, and perils to pilots.
Extrapolating from analyst assessments that the most advanced Jerichos carry 750 kg (1,650 lb) conventional warheads, Abdullah Toukan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said 42 missiles would be enough to “severely damage or demolish” Iran’s core nuclear sites at Natanz, Esfahan and Arak.
“If the Jericho III is fully developed and its accuracy is quite high then this scenario could look much more feasible than using combat aircraft,” he said in the March 14 report, titled “Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities”.
Israel, whose jets bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and mounted a similar sortie over Syria in 2007, has hinted that it could forcibly deny Iran the means to make an atomic bomb.
But many experts believe the Iranian sites are too distant, dispersed and fortified for Israel’s warplanes to take on alone.
Israel neither confirms nor denies having Jerichos, as part of an “ambiguity” policy veiling its own assumed atomic arsenal.
A veteran Israeli defence consultant played down the idea of ballistic missiles being used for conventional attacks.
“You look at any major Western military, and you’ll see that such strikes are the purview of manned warplanes, while ballistic missiles are reserved for nuclear-strike scenarios,” the consultant told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
I’m still curious as to why they are waiting. There has to be a moment in which Israel can do nothing more than take military action. Makes me wonder about what is going on behind the scenes in the intelligence community. Are they waiting to see if some covert sabotage works out? I think this whole situation is too complex for any civilian to truly understand. They’re probably taking every measure possible until the point of no return, not to mention their preparation for a likely retaliation from several fronts. Imagine having to prepare this kind of operation, not to mention preparing your own defence forces for what’s likely to come in the aftermath. Scary stuff.
Here’s more on the Jericho III
It is estimated that the Jericho III entered service by 2008.
The Jericho III is believed to have a three-stage solid propellant and a payload of 1,000 to 1,300 kg. It is possible for the missile to be equipped with a single 750 kg nuclear warhead or two or three low yield MIRV warheads. It has an estimated launch weight of 29,000 kg and a length of 15.5 m with a width of 1.56 m. It likely is similar to an upgraded Shavitspace launch vehicle. It will probably have longer first and second-stage motors. It is estimated that it will have a range of 4,800 to 7,000 km (2,982 to 4,350 miles), and probably significantly greater with a payload of 350kg (one Israeli nuclear warhead). It is believed that the Jericho 3 is inertial guided with a radar guided warhead and silo-based with mobile vehicle and railcar capabilities.
The Jericho 3 will give Israel nuclear strike capabilities within the entire Middle East and Europe. The range of the Jericho 3 also provides an extremely high impact speed for nearby targets, enabling it to avoid any ballistic missile defenses that may develop in the immediate region.
On 17 January 2008 Israel test fired a multi-stage ballistic missile believed to be of the Jericho III type reportedly capable of carrying “Special warheads”.
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