*Sources: DTN News / Int'l Media
(NSI News Source Info) LONDON, U.K. - July 3, 2009: Defense spending in Britain is facing a 10 percent to 15 percent cut in real terms over the next six years as the govern
ment puts in place austerity measures to tackle massive public debt, a top British military think tank said in a report released July 2.
The Royal United Services Institute says the 2010-2016 period could see between 4 billion pounds and 6 billion pounds wiped off the defense budget as a consequence of Britain's fiscal crisis.
But it warns that even if the government increases taxes, bigger defense spending reductions are in the cards if the administration opted for a modest level of real terms growth to health and education or if the economy fails to recover its previous rate of growth by next year.
The RUSI report, called Preparing for the Lean Years, is authored by Malcolm Chalmers, the Professor of Defence and Foreign Policy at Kings College of London. It is the latest contribution to a growing debate here about what sort of armed forces can Britain afford in the medium to long-term
Three days ago, a report by the Institute for Public Policy Research urged the government to consider restructuring the military to focus on specialist capabilities as part of a deepening European defense integration and the wider NATO alliance.
The IPPR report said Britain should also reconsider how it could provide a minimum nuclear deterrent when the existing Trident missile submarines go out of service and look again at whether major projects like the CVF aircraft carrier , Joint Strike Fighter and the Astute nuclear attack submarine are relevant to projected defense requirements.
A general election here is scheduled for no later than June 2010. With both the leading political parties planning a strategic defense review immediately after the election, academics and others are already scrambling to influence thinking.
The RUSI report, though, is probably the first to sketch out just what the financial picture might be during the period a strategic defense review is likely to cover.
The core defense budgets out to 2010 and 2011 have already been set and are unlikely to be substantially altered. But RUSI said the immediate aftermath of the next election will see a "comprehensive review of government commitments leading to a prolonged period of austerity in public spending starting with the fiscal year 2011/12.
The total British defense budget for 2010/11 is currently set at almost 37 billion pounds. That's not enough though to meet even current program requirements as the MoD has sought to balance its books in the face of a potentially huge overspend.
Among the key findings, RUSI says:
* Reduction of the MoD current and capital budgets in line with those for the whole government would see total defense spending dip by an estimated 6.8 percent in real terms from 2010 to 2011 and 2013 to 2014. The estimated reduction over six years from 2016 to 2017 would be 11 percent in real terms.
If the MoD succeeds in obtaining an exemption from the full impact of planned capital cuts, it could face pressure from another source. If health and education are given special treatment and their budgets are frozen at 2010 levels in real terms, and the rate of growth of social security spending is reduced to 1 percent, this would leave the rest of government, including the MoD facing a budget cut of 14 percent over the period 2010 to 2016.
The report says procurement, pay, operations in Afghanistan and capabilities could all be potential victims of a budget cut.
Postponement of the replacement for the Trident-armed Vanguard nuclear submarine program "could be particularly tempting given it is due to be the MoD's largest procurement project from 2016-17," according to the report.
ment puts in place austerity measures to tackle massive public debt, a top British military think tank said in a report released July 2.
The Royal United Services Institute says the 2010-2016 period could see between 4 billion pounds and 6 billion pounds wiped off the defense budget as a consequence of Britain's fiscal crisis.
But it warns that even if the government increases taxes, bigger defense spending reductions are in the cards if the administration opted for a modest level of real terms growth to health and education or if the economy fails to recover its previous rate of growth by next year.
The RUSI report, called Preparing for the Lean Years, is authored by Malcolm Chalmers, the Professor of Defence and Foreign Policy at Kings College of London. It is the latest contribution to a growing debate here about what sort of armed forces can Britain afford in the medium to long-term
Three days ago, a report by the Institute for Public Policy Research urged the government to consider restructuring the military to focus on specialist capabilities as part of a deepening European defense integration and the wider NATO alliance.
The IPPR report said Britain should also reconsider how it could provide a minimum nuclear deterrent when the existing Trident missile submarines go out of service and look again at whether major projects like the CVF aircraft carrier , Joint Strike Fighter and the Astute nuclear attack submarine are relevant to projected defense requirements.
A general election here is scheduled for no later than June 2010. With both the leading political parties planning a strategic defense review immediately after the election, academics and others are already scrambling to influence thinking.
The RUSI report, though, is probably the first to sketch out just what the financial picture might be during the period a strategic defense review is likely to cover.
The core defense budgets out to 2010 and 2011 have already been set and are unlikely to be substantially altered. But RUSI said the immediate aftermath of the next election will see a "comprehensive review of government commitments leading to a prolonged period of austerity in public spending starting with the fiscal year 2011/12.
The total British defense budget for 2010/11 is currently set at almost 37 billion pounds. That's not enough though to meet even current program requirements as the MoD has sought to balance its books in the face of a potentially huge overspend.
Among the key findings, RUSI says:
* Reduction of the MoD current and capital budgets in line with those for the whole government would see total defense spending dip by an estimated 6.8 percent in real terms from 2010 to 2011 and 2013 to 2014. The estimated reduction over six years from 2016 to 2017 would be 11 percent in real terms.
If the MoD succeeds in obtaining an exemption from the full impact of planned capital cuts, it could face pressure from another source. If health and education are given special treatment and their budgets are frozen at 2010 levels in real terms, and the rate of growth of social security spending is reduced to 1 percent, this would leave the rest of government, including the MoD facing a budget cut of 14 percent over the period 2010 to 2016.
The report says procurement, pay, operations in Afghanistan and capabilities could all be potential victims of a budget cut.
Postponement of the replacement for the Trident-armed Vanguard nuclear submarine program "could be particularly tempting given it is due to be the MoD's largest procurement project from 2016-17," according to the report.
No comments:
Post a Comment