DTN News: China TODAY October 20, 2009 ~ Concrete 'Carrier' A Signal Of Intent, Showcases Beijing's Maritime Ambitions

DTN News: China TODAY October 20, 2009 ~ Concrete 'Carrier' A Signal Of Intent, Showcases Beijing's Maritime Ambitions *Source: DTN News / SCMP (NSI News Source Info) HONG KONG - October 20, 2009: The emergence of a giant concrete ship in the unlikely setting of Wuhan is the latest sign that Beijing's desire for aircraft carriers is fast moving towards a full-blown production programme. A general view of the control tower. The emergence of a giant concrete ship in the unlikely setting of Wuhan is the latest sign that Beijing's desire for aircraft carriers is fast moving towards a full-blown production programme. The carrier mock-up comes complete with flight deck, ramp and tower, all atop what looks like a low-rise brick office building. A fighter plane and helicopter, draped in dark cloth, are parked on the blue-tiled deck. The Wuhan ship will not be taking to the seas any time soon. But some day in the future, China's first homegrown aircraft carrier will sail out of Shanghai's Changxing Shipyard and into the Pacific, loaded with jet fighters and protected by state-of-the-art support ships and submarines. Quite when that will be is the subject of increasing scrutiny by foreign military analysts and scholars across the region, who believe that a host of technological hurdles remain. Estimates that the first locally built carrier will be operational in five years are fluid at best. The construction of the Wuhan mock-up is among several recent moves generating interest among those following the nation's carrier plans. Other developments include the re-fit of the tower of the secondhand Soviet-era carrier Varyag at Dalian . There is also tightened security around the virtually completed Changxing Shipyard. This month, an official ship-building institute announced Beijing's plans to build a new generation of large destroyers that would be vital to support a carrier programme - which in turn is the key to transforming China into a genuine blue-water naval power. Work on carrier support vessels is already believed to be under way at Changxing, and the keel for the first Chinese-produced carrier - expected to be called the Beijing 01 - is due to be laid there. The Pentagon has noted that a fully operational, locally built carrier is unlikely before 2015, but Beijing wants to be building multiple carriers by 2020. Less visible activity includes stepped-up training for naval pilots by Ukrainian-trained instructors at several sites, and ongoing attempts to acquire carrier-capable fighters and surveillance planes, radars and advanced circuitry. Then there is the research into steam catapults used to launch planes off carrier decks - technology that is decades-old yet nonetheless complex to master. Brazil is helping Chinese technicians working on its lone carrier, the French-designed Sao Paulo. "We are reaching a very interesting stage," said Gary Li, a specialist on the Chinese military at the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies. "We can see in a very comprehensive, systematic way China putting together the infrastructure and the technology required. A leaked security picture of the shipyard at Changxing shipyard showing heavy lifting cranes that have recently been put in place. "When will we see the first fully armed and supported indigenous aircraft carrier set sail? That is very hard to tell ? it is an immense task for even more mature militaries, but we are seeing signs of a lot of work on a lot of fronts. There are many technological choke-points still ahead to really be able to fix a possible date." The ultimate target, repeatedly outlined by political and military leaders, is to have full carrier battle groups operational as part of a blue-water navy by 2050. In December last year, Ministry of National Defence spokesman Senior Colonel Huang Xueping made Beijing's intentions clear, describing an aircraft carrier as "a symbol of a country's overall national strength, as well as the competitiveness of the country's naval force". In the near-term, Li, like other analysts, believes one of the first tangible signs of progress in the next few years will be the completion of a fully operational Varyag. The 67,500 tonne ship was partially completed in a Ukrainian shipyard when the Soviet Union collapsed. Stripped of technology, the hull and superstructure were sold to Beijing for $20US million. China later paid extra for the blueprints. The work on the Varyag serves multiple purposes - in addition to allowing engineers to study and practise the specialised techniques required to build an aircraft carrier, its completion will provide the PLA navy with a key tool. The Varyag has already made brief trips out of Dalian, but when it is officially put to sea it is expected to serve as a fully operational training vessel, rather than an active weapon. "The Varyag's main role will be to serve as a simulator at a small distance offshore," said Andrei Chang, editor of the Canadian-based Kanwa Defence Review. "The live training of pilots, and fully integrating systems and command and control, will be very important as locally built ships are completed. These are very tough aspects for any military to master."A general view of the mock aircraft carrier being constructed on top of a building in Wuhan. The Varyag is facing scrutiny for other reasons, too. The design of the first homegrown Chinese carrier is not yet known, but some factors suggest it may share features of the Admiral Kuznetov-class Varyag. Conventionally powered, the Varyag uses a ramp at the bow to launch planes, meaning no complex catapult system is required. However, this limits the type of planes that can be used. The Wuhan facility appears to be an exact replica of the Varyag. "It is a very interesting statement of intent," said one Asian military attaché who was aware of the building of the Varyag replica. "It shows how intense they are about getting this right, but also the fact that the old Varyag design is still important to them." The first photographs of the Wuhan construction appeared on a blog on Sina.com a few weeks ago, only to be taken down within hours. Updated pictures have since surfaced in mainland media. Given the fact that it sits atop a building, it is not expected to be used for flight training. Instead, the Wuhan facility is expected to be used for more routine testing and training, from calibrating radars to testing flight deck co-ordination and emergency responses. Even something as routine as mapping out the thousands of kilometres of cables and circuitry inside an aircraft carrier requires intense study. "Even the Soviet Union at the height of its power had problems with things like cables," Chang said. "China knows it has to start from scratch and get this right ? you don't want anything that can shut down a carrier. They are large and very vulnerable." Other handicaps will require diplomatic as well as technological solutions. In the early stages at least, China is almost certainly going to have to use foreign-designed planes on its carriers. Negotiations to buy 50 SU-33 carrier-based jet fighters from Russia were first reported in that country's Kommersant newspaper in October, 2006. Discussions faltered amid Moscow's ongoing complaints of Chinese piracy of military technology. However, Asian diplomats believe that talks are still ongoing and while Moscow may have strategic concerns, it is still ultimately keen to sell to China, knowing it could obtain planes and other weapons elsewhere. Despite the flurry of activity on a range of fronts, no one is expecting a sudden carrier breakthrough anytime soon. While aircraft carriers pre-date the second world war, the building and operation of carrier battle groups represents the peak of military, industrial and strategic co-ordination. France struggled throughout the 1990s to complete its long-delayed nuclear-powered carrier, the Charles de Gaulle. Thailand's first and only aircraft carrier, the Spanish-built Chakri Narubet, barely leaves port. Ralph Cossa, president of the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum of the Centre of Strategic and International Studies, said many countries had found to their cost that carrier programmes were a lot tougher than they looked. "It is a going to be a long, hard road for China," he said. It is a common view in Washington. Passing through Hong Kong in February, Admiral Timothy Keating, outgoing head of the US Pacific Command, warned of the costs and dangers underpinning carrier development. "If they want to build aircraft carriers we know it will take them a long time. It will be harder than they might think it is now."