DTN News: Pakistan TODAY February 5, 2010 ~ New Dangers In Pakistan Taliban Leader's 'Death'

DTN News: Pakistan TODAY February 5, 2010 ~ New Dangers In Pakistan Taliban Leader's 'Death' *Source: DTN News / Int'l Media (NSI News Source Info) ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - February 5, 2010: The death of Pakistan's Taliban supremo in a US missile strike, if confirmed, would deal a major blow to the militant nexus but could magnify the dangers should Al-Qaeda exploit a leadership vacuum.Supporters of religious party Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam burn a U.S. flag to protest against the conviction of a Pakistani woman by a U.S. court, during a rally in Quetta, located in Pakistan's Baluchistan Province February 4, 2010. About 2,000 Islamists protesting against Siddiqui's conviction chanted slogans against the United States and support for Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar in the southwestern city of Quetta. Aafia Siddiqui, 37, was convicted in a New York court on Wednesday for grabbing a U.S. officer's rifle while she was being questioned in 2008 in Afghanistan and firing at FBI agents and military personnel as she was wrestled to the ground. Pakistan will take all steps necessary to bring home a Pakistani woman convicted in a U.S. court for shooting at her U.S. interrogators in Afghanistan, a government spokesman said on Thursday. US officials increasingly believe that Hakimullah Mehsud, who rose suddenly to the Taliban leadership after a US missile killed his predecessor Baitullah Mehsud six months ago, has succumbed to the same fate. They have no physical evidence and Pakistan has not confirmed his demise officially. But neither have the Taliban issued a promised message to prove their leader is alive, since an audio recording three weeks ago. Killing Mehsud would be a coup for the United States, which stepped up its drone war after the warlord appeared in a video with Al-Qaeda claiming a December 30 bombing that killed five CIA officers in Afghanistan. "Hakimullah was more energetic and active than Baitullah. If it's proven he's killed, then this will be a great loss for Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)," a Pakistani intelligence official told AFP on condition of anonymity.Pakistani police officers stand guard as a paramilitary soldier searches a passenger at a checkpoint near Shahi Koto in the Pakistani district of Lower Dir, Thursday, Feb. 4, 2010. The deaths of three American special operations soldiers in a roadside bombing in northwest Pakistan on Wednesday drew unwanted attention to a U.S. program of training local forces to fight the Taliban and al-Qaida, a little-publicized mission because of opposition here to American boots on Pakistani soil. "His next successor could be Wali-ur-Rehman, who is not as active but rather more passive," the official added. Baitullah Mehsud's death was followed by weeks of infighting among the TTP leadership, analysts believe, but the group came back with a vengeance with a series of bloody reprisal bombings once Hakimullah Mehsud was installed. "I still don't think TTP is finished," said Rahimullah Yusufzai, one of the most prominent experts on Pakistan's wild tribal belt on the Afghan border, which shelters TTP, Al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban commanders. "Maybe their ability to strike back is limited but they will survive," said Yusufzai. Hakimullah Mehsud presided over a big escalation in bombings against security installations and Pakistani civilians. The group was blamed for a 20-hour siege of army headquarters, the slaughter of 125 people in a Peshawar market and 105 people at a volleyball game. Hakimullah took credit, with Al-Qaeda, for killing the CIA agents in southeastern Afghanistan, the worst attack on the US spy agency in 26 years. Reports differ on whether he was hit by US missiles on January 14 or January 17 -- one day after Mehsud attested he was alive in an audio tape. "There's a good likelihood that he's dead," a US defense official told AFP on Thursday, arguing that with no appearance or communication by Mehsud, "the rumors of his demise become more deeply seated". Pakistan has seen a recent decline in attacks, due perhaps to the drone war but also to sustained Pakistani offensives across the tribal belt, which analysts believe make it difficult for TTP leaders to meet and travel. Last month, 153 people were killed by militants in Pakistan -- 101 in the volleyball attack -- nearly half the 275 killed in October, according to an AFP tally. Pakistani officials believe that a major Pakistani offensive, launched in October against the TTP stronghold in South Waziristan, scattered the leadership to far-flung locales in Orakzai and North Waziristan. "The problem is that the TTP cannot really function now as an effective group. They can't really meet... If you cannot even meet, how can you then coordinate your planning and attacks and defence?" said Yusufzai. Mehmood Shah, a former security chief for the tribal belt, says the impact of Mehsud's possible demise would remain unclear until the Taliban elects a new leader, whose personality will be key the organisation's future course. "I expect Al-Qaeda to step in if there is a leadership crisis... Al-Qaeda has the brain and vision to mount sophisticated operations to create strategic effects," he told AFP. "There could be another rise in terrorist activities... now the leadership is on the move and hiding, their ability to undertake operations is diminished," said Shah, a retired brigadier. "I'm not going to say it (TTP) is finished. It could at times become more dangerous. Some of the sectarian organisations, which are Punjab-based, could find more independence to undertake terrorist activities," he added.