DTN News: Red Alert Update II ~ Keeping an Eye on the Peninsula / Red Alert (Update) ~ South Korean Ship Sinking
Source: STRATFOR
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - March 27, 2010:
A South Korean presidential spokesman said North Korea did not cause the sinking of the South Korean vessel Cho An. Even though lack of subsequent military conflict shows that the incident has now become a political event, the maritime boundary of the Korean Peninsula should be watched closely in the coming days to see how the incident fits within Pyongyang’s attempts to hold its own as it approaches the resumption of international negotiations and an important leadership transition.
A South Korean ship has been sunk in the vicinity of the maritime border with North Korea. While details are sketchy, initial reports suggest that some South Korean naval ships had been involved in combat with an unidentified ship in the area immediately preceding the incident. Other reports suggest that the ship was struck by a torpedo. Yet another indicates a stern explosion.
Tensions between the two Koreas have always been at least moderately high, but previous governments in the South have tended to seek a rapprochement. That warming has cooled significantly in recent months; one result has been occasional naval skirmishes.
There are three issues to keep in mind when evaluating the potential for an inter-Korean conflict. First, the South Korean army, air force and navy are far better equipped and run than the North’s, despite the North’s numerical superiority when it comes to men in uniform. Stratfor has little doubt that the South could ultimately prevail in a military conflict.
But – and this is the second issue – it would come at a massive cost. The North maintains many thousands of artillery emplacements within range of Seoul. So while the South’s military is superior by most measures, the North could quite easily decimate the South’s capital and largest city. Roughly one in four South Koreans live in Seoul.
Third, the South Koreans are not alone. Despite recent shifts in American military posture, the United States still maintains 25,000 troops in South Korea – so an inter-Korean conflict immediately escalates to a global issue.
*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News, contact: dtnnews@ymail.com
Source: STRATFOR
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - March 27, 2010:
A South Korean presidential spokesman said North Korea did not cause the sinking of the South Korean vessel Cho An. Even though lack of subsequent military conflict shows that the incident has now become a political event, the maritime boundary of the Korean Peninsula should be watched closely in the coming days to see how the incident fits within Pyongyang’s attempts to hold its own as it approaches the resumption of international negotiations and an important leadership transition.
A South Korean ship has been sunk in the vicinity of the maritime border with North Korea. While details are sketchy, initial reports suggest that some South Korean naval ships had been involved in combat with an unidentified ship in the area immediately preceding the incident. Other reports suggest that the ship was struck by a torpedo. Yet another indicates a stern explosion.
Tensions between the two Koreas have always been at least moderately high, but previous governments in the South have tended to seek a rapprochement. That warming has cooled significantly in recent months; one result has been occasional naval skirmishes.
There are three issues to keep in mind when evaluating the potential for an inter-Korean conflict. First, the South Korean army, air force and navy are far better equipped and run than the North’s, despite the North’s numerical superiority when it comes to men in uniform. Stratfor has little doubt that the South could ultimately prevail in a military conflict.
But – and this is the second issue – it would come at a massive cost. The North maintains many thousands of artillery emplacements within range of Seoul. So while the South’s military is superior by most measures, the North could quite easily decimate the South’s capital and largest city. Roughly one in four South Koreans live in Seoul.
Third, the South Koreans are not alone. Despite recent shifts in American military posture, the United States still maintains 25,000 troops in South Korea – so an inter-Korean conflict immediately escalates to a global issue.
*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News, contact: dtnnews@ymail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment