DTN News: Global Fighter Aircraft Market Heats Up
*Source: Int'l Defense Media
(NSI News Source Info) WASHINGTON– June 12, 2009: With the game-changing F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft in early production stages, rival manufacturers are racing against time.
The F-35 may be regarded almost as much as an industrial and coalition-building policy as a warplane made by Lockheed Martin Corp the Pentagon's No. 1 supplier by sales and the world's largest aerospace company.
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is a multi-Service/international cooperation warplane. The cornerstone of the program is affordability based on a next-generation, multi-role strike fighter aircraft that will have a 70 to 90 percent commonality factor for all the variants, significantly reducing manufacturing, support and training costs. First delivery of operational aircraft is anticipated in fiscal 2008.
It is a projected trillion-dollar enterprise designed to dominate the lucrative global fighter market for decades while plugging its buyers into U.S.-built defense architecture and cementing U.S.-led alliances.
Unlike Lockheed's premier F-22 fighter, which flies faster, and higher and can range further, the radar-evading F-35 was intended for export from the get-go. It will be the first radar-evading, "stealth" U.S. warplane to be exported. And it is the costliest planned acquisition in Defense Department history.
The United States alone plans to spend nearly $300 billion for a total of 2,443 F-35s in three models to be delivered over 28 years. All are derived from a common design and would use the same sustainment infrastructure worldwide.
"The plan has firmed up" with no defections among foreign development partners, says Richard Aboulafia, a fighter-market expert at Teal Group, an aerospace consultancy in Fairfax, Virginia.
The F-35 is co-financed by the United States, Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, Canada, Australia, Denmark and Norway. All the U.S. partners appear to be largely sticking to plans to buy a combined 750 F-35s, at least for now.
F-35 competitors include the Saab AB Gripen, the Dassault Aviation SA Rafale, Russia's MiG-35 and Sukhoi Su-35, and the Eurofighter Typhoon made by a consortium of British, German, Italian and Spanish companies.
Dassault has been pitching its Rafale to the United Arab Emirates in what would be the first overseas sale of the aircraft.
Brazil has short-listed the Rafale, Gripen and Boeing Co F-18E/F Super Hornet as finalists in a competition that could involve the purchase of more than 100 aircraft.
Next month, India is due to start year-long flight evaluations for the purchase of 126 multi-role fighters worth up to $10.4 billion, the biggest such market in decades. Indonesia and Malaysia are weighing Russian-made Sukhois. Switzerland is looking at the Eurofighter, Gripen and Rafale. Greece is evaluating the Eurofighter and the Super Hornet.
In India, Boeing is pitting its Super Hornet against Lockheed's F-16, Dassault's Rafale, Saab's Gripen, Russia's MiG-35 and the Eurofighter Typhoon.
Of the Swiss and Indian fighter competitions, Stefan Zoller, chief executive of EADS' defense and security division, told Reuters: "Both campaigns are hot; both campaigns are running exactly on schedule".
Chicago-based Boeing, the Pentagon's No. 2 supplier by sales and the top U.S. exporter, says it sees big opportunities for its F-15 and F/A-18 fighters before Lockheed works out kinks in the F-35, production ramps up and the price goes down.
"It's a great time to be in the fighter business," Bob Gower, the head of Boeing's F/A-18 program, told a briefing ahead of the Paris Air show next week.
Not since the days of McDonnell's F-4 Phantom fighter in the 1960s and 1970s has Boeing been entered into so many competitions worldwide, he said.
At the same time, Boeing is shopping for partners to co-fund development of a proposed new F-15 "Silent Eagle", a version aimed at Asian and Middle East markets that would feature special coatings to reduce its radar signature and other survivability improvements to go up against the F-35.
Chris Chadwick, president of Boeing's military aircraft division, told reporters last week: "With F-35 continuing to struggle to a certain extent, we think that we offer ... the right amount of capability at the right cost at the right time for a lot of the international customers."
He described a four-to six-year window of opportunity including potential sales to India, Denmark and Brazil, which have competitions under way that also involve rival Russian and European fighters.
Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Qatar and Kuwait are among other countries that have shown interest in modernizing their fighter fleets in the relatively short term.
Australia has ordered 24 two-seat F/A-18F Super Hornets, with deliveries to start on July 8 and to be completed by 2012, the only Super Hornet export sale so far.
"The worst time you can buy a fighter is during the initial stages because the capability comes along later and the learning comes along later," Boeing's Chadwick said in a swipe at early purchases of Lockheed's F-35.
Boeing has offered the U.S. Navy a multiyear Super Hornet deal with a unit price of about $54 million, including advanced Raytheon Co actively electronically scanned array (AESA) radar systems and "the whole nine yards," Chadwick said.
Chris Geisel, a Lockheed spokesman, says the F-35A conventional take-off and landing model is projected to cost in the upper $60 million range per copy in adjusted 2014 dollars, when full production is due to kick in.
Three single-engine F-35 versions are under development by Lockheed: the conventional version for the Air Force, a short-takeoff-and-vertical landing model for the Marine Corps and a third for the Navy's aircraft carriers.
Lockheed's chief F-35 subcontractors are Northrop Grumman Corp and BAE Systems Plc Two rival, interchangeable F-35 engines are under development. One is built by United Technologies Corp's Pratt & Whitney unit; the other by a team of General Electric Co and Rolls-Royce Group Plc
Projected early F-35 buyers include Israel, which plans to acquire 25 in fiscal 2012 for delivery starting in 2014 with an option for 50 more. A sticking point has been Israel's efforts to add its own electronic warfare know-how.
Singapore, the other non-consortium member linked to the F-35 program through a special status, may start buying as many as 100 a year or two after Israel, Jon Schreiber, the Pentagon official who heads the program's international aspects, told Reuters in a March 17 interview.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates recommended buying 30 F-35s in fiscal 2010, up from the 14 funded this year, boosting funding from $6.9 billion to $11.2 billion. At the same time, the Navy is seeking nine fewer F/A 18s than had been projected last year and the department is planning to cap purchases of Lockheed's top-of-the-line F-22 at 187 planes.
"By accelerating the (F-35's) procurement ramp, we can lower procurement costs while also making the platform more cost competitive for our coalition partners," Air Force Secretary Michael Donley and General Norton Schwartz, the service's top officer, said in a June 3 statement to Congress.
Lockheed says all 24 countries that fly its multi-role F-16 fighter are potential buyers of the F-35, which is designed to replace at least 13 types of aircraft, including the F-16.
Overall, 2,909 fighters worth $163.7 billion are likely to be produced between 2008 and 2017, according to Teal Group, the aerospace consultancy. A total of 2,355 fighters worth $122.4 billion were built between 1998 and 2007, Teal said in a February 2009 market overview, representing a 34 per cent value growth.
"Boeing and the European primes have some strong business opportunities over the next five to 10 years," Aboulafia said in an email exchange. "But beyond these, the fighter market will belong to the F-35."
"It's quite likely that after 2020 the market will comprise the F-35 family and some Russian planes," he added.