*Source: DTN News / EADS
(NSI News Source Info) PARIS, France - September 18, 2009: European commercial aircraft builder Airbus Thursday raised its outlook for the global market for large commercial airliners over the next 20 years, with demand driven by 
emerging economies, expanding airline networks, growing low-cost carriers and the need to replace inefficient aircraft.
The Toulouse, France-based unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. NV (EAD.FR) said it now estimates demand at some 25,000 aircraft worth $3.1 trillion through 2028.
That's an increase of 2.9% compared to its projection in February, 2008, of a potential market of 24,300 planes worth $2.8 trillion.
With households and companies trying to preserve cash amid the economic slowdown, Airbus expects airline passenger traffic measured in terms of revenue passenger kilometers, an industry measure of revenue per passenger for each kilometer flown, to contract 2% this year but to expand 4.6% in 2010.
Longer term, airline passenger traffic will remain resilient to the cyclical effects of the airline sector and should grow at an average annual rate of 4.7% through 2029, requiring 24,100 new aircraft worth $2.9 trillion, Airbus said. That figure includes 10,000 jets to replace aging aircraft. Cargo traffic, depressed due to weak economic activity, is expected to grow 5.2% annually on average over the period, Airbus said. This will require 3,440 additional freighters, of which 850 will be new aircraft, the remainder conversions from passenger jets.
In its 2008 long-term market outlook, Airbus had projected average annual passenger traffic growth of 4.9% and cargo traffic rising by 5.8% over 20 years.
The latest long-term market forecast of U.S. rival Boeing Co. (BA) points to demand for 29,000 large commercial aircraft worth $3.22 billion through 2028, assuming a 3.1% average annual growth rate for the world economy.
The airline business rises and falls in step with economic activity, and aircraft manufacturing is also cyclical. But with long development time for new aircraft and production runs that can last 30 years or more, both manufacturers need long-term visibility on their markets.
Boeing and Airbus, which have a duopoly in the market for large commercial airplanes, have been hit by losses of existing orders or postponement of deliveries as airlines suffer faltering demand during the recession. The International Air Transport Association Tuesday raised its estimate of the aggregate net loss of the world's mainstream airlines in 2009 to $11 billion from $9 billion previously.
In 2008 Airbus accounted for 54% of the market for planes with 100 seats or more, and the European company has extended its lead in 2009. So far this year, Airbus has booked 125 orders net of cancellations, compared to Boeing's 70. Airbus booked 147 gross orders between January and August, and is hoping to net up to 300 over the year.
Airbus said the Asia-Pacific region and emerging markets will be the main engine of growth for its sector, with Asia accounting for 31% of sales, compared to 25% for Europe and 23% in North America.
Airbus Chief Operating Officer for Customers John Leahy told journalists in London that Airbus remained confident that it could book 300 orders this year, excluding cancellations, and said the company was on track to deliver about 480 aircraft, about the same as in 2008. For 2010, he said, "the goal, of course, would be to try to stay flat if we could."
But he said that "it's going to be a difficult winter" for airlines, with the risk of more order cancellations when airlines realize they can't put up the cash to take deliveries. "Airlines flew with not very high yields in the summer, and didn't build up the war chests they usually do" to get through the slack winter season, he said.
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emerging economies, expanding airline networks, growing low-cost carriers and the need to replace inefficient aircraft.
The Toulouse, France-based unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. NV (EAD.FR) said it now estimates demand at some 25,000 aircraft worth $3.1 trillion through 2028.
That's an increase of 2.9% compared to its projection in February, 2008, of a potential market of 24,300 planes worth $2.8 trillion.
With households and companies trying to preserve cash amid the economic slowdown, Airbus expects airline passenger traffic measured in terms of revenue passenger kilometers, an industry measure of revenue per passenger for each kilometer flown, to contract 2% this year but to expand 4.6% in 2010.
Longer term, airline passenger traffic will remain resilient to the cyclical effects of the airline sector and should grow at an average annual rate of 4.7% through 2029, requiring 24,100 new aircraft worth $2.9 trillion, Airbus said. That figure includes 10,000 jets to replace aging aircraft. Cargo traffic, depressed due to weak economic activity, is expected to grow 5.2% annually on average over the period, Airbus said. This will require 3,440 additional freighters, of which 850 will be new aircraft, the remainder conversions from passenger jets.
In its 2008 long-term market outlook, Airbus had projected average annual passenger traffic growth of 4.9% and cargo traffic rising by 5.8% over 20 years.
The latest long-term market forecast of U.S. rival Boeing Co. (BA) points to demand for 29,000 large commercial aircraft worth $3.22 billion through 2028, assuming a 3.1% average annual growth rate for the world economy.
The airline business rises and falls in step with economic activity, and aircraft manufacturing is also cyclical. But with long development time for new aircraft and production runs that can last 30 years or more, both manufacturers need long-term visibility on their markets.
Boeing and Airbus, which have a duopoly in the market for large commercial airplanes, have been hit by losses of existing orders or postponement of deliveries as airlines suffer faltering demand during the recession. The International Air Transport Association Tuesday raised its estimate of the aggregate net loss of the world's mainstream airlines in 2009 to $11 billion from $9 billion previously.
In 2008 Airbus accounted for 54% of the market for planes with 100 seats or more, and the European company has extended its lead in 2009. So far this year, Airbus has booked 125 orders net of cancellations, compared to Boeing's 70. Airbus booked 147 gross orders between January and August, and is hoping to net up to 300 over the year.
Airbus said the Asia-Pacific region and emerging markets will be the main engine of growth for its sector, with Asia accounting for 31% of sales, compared to 25% for Europe and 23% in North America.
Airbus Chief Operating Officer for Customers John Leahy told journalists in London that Airbus remained confident that it could book 300 orders this year, excluding cancellations, and said the company was on track to deliver about 480 aircraft, about the same as in 2008. For 2010, he said, "the goal, of course, would be to try to stay flat if we could."
But he said that "it's going to be a difficult winter" for airlines, with the risk of more order cancellations when airlines realize they can't put up the cash to take deliveries. "Airlines flew with not very high yields in the summer, and didn't build up the war chests they usually do" to get through the slack winter season, he said.
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