attention has shifted dramatically towards a potential “exit strategy” in Afghanistan.
Although, President Barack Obama talked of an ‘uncompromising core of the Taliban’, which must be defeated, but facing dwindling public support for a war now into its ninth year, the US and its allies proposed a multi-dimensional solution that can reverse the present course of war.
Based on the hypothesis of Taliban being relegated to a local threat, diplomatic observers in Washington say that negotiations may be the only way to a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan. As a part of this scheme, the US has commenced wooing those Taliban leaders who are ready to renounce violence to be included in the governance of Afghanistan.
The recently-concluded London Conference on Afghanistan, the 60-nation delegation declared support for the Afghan national process of reconciliation and reintegration in a way that is “Afghan-driven”. The London talks aimed to galvanise support for Afghan development and provide funds to buy off Taliban foot soldiers to back up an extra 30,000 US troops being sent to Afghanistan to destroy hardcore element.
Western countries are hoping a final military and civilian push will let them negotiate a settlement from a position of strength and start bringing some troops home by 2011. President Karzai and the UN representative in Afghanistan have called for the removal of the names of five top Taliban leaders from the US and the UN blacklists as a step towards beginning negotiations. However, Taliban have called for the withdrawal of foreign troops before any peace talks can start. They are also distrustful of western attempts to split the Taliban by buying off foot soldiers.
The international community at the London Conference has endorsed Pakistan’s policy of opening a corridor of dialogue with moderate Taliban to integrate them into mainstream. It is needless to say that unless the local population is on board with the government, it would be very difficult to achieve peace and stability in the war-torn country.
Therefore, deft handling of prevailing disorder requires sincere and intimate support of local populace in order to segregate “good guys” from bad ones besides flushing out the hard-core Taliban from the area. In the past, a number of attempts have been forwarded to achieve a negotiated settlement between the Afghan government and Taliban representatives so as to bring peace to Afghanistan.
The most significant amongst these, were the one hosted by Saudi Arabia in 2008, followed by high level parleys in Dubai.
The most significant amongst these, were the one hosted by Saudi Arabia in 2008, followed by high level parleys in Dubai. The hosting of “Istanbul summit” in Turkey prior to London Conference on Afghanistan, was also aimed to help brother countries in achieving the objective of durable peace and stability in Afghanistan. During the London conference, nations agreed that Afghan National Army (ANA) should aim to take the lead role in providing security in a number of provinces by late 2010 or early 2011, opening the road for reduction in foreign troops.
It was also agreed that Afghanistan needed the support of its neighbours, particularly Pakistan, to secure peace. The United States and its allies want to leave it up to the Afghans to seek reconciliation.
A fund of $140 million had been pledged to help reintegrate Taliban foot soldiers into mainstream of Afghan society.Serious efforts have begun to identify reconcilable elements in Afghan Taliban ranks following an international endorsement at the London Conference of President Karzai’s reintegration plan.
The United States, which wants the integration plan to be operationalised by middle of the year, requires the support of Pakistan. Although both Islamabad and Washington agree in principle of reintegrating the Taliban, the two differ on “who should lead the process.”
While Washington wants the Afghan government to take a strong political lead with ISAF and commanders in the field acting in a supporting role, Islamabad believes that Pakistan is better placed to head the initiative.
It would be a cause of worry for Pakistan if Afghanistan’s projected army developed the potential to take on Pakistan. Pakistan has raised concern over a similar offer by India to train Afghan army, and the issue could become another point of conflict between the two South Asian neighbours. An environment hostile to Pakistan could strain its battle against militancy and extremism.
Islamabad has strong reservations about India. Pakistan complains that India is using its influence in Afghanistan to stir trouble in Balochistan and had also provided weapons and financial assistance to the militants in Fata.
Islamabad also sees India’s strong presence in Afghanistan as a threat to its own security, fearing that New Delhi is trying to bring pressure on Pakistan from both its eastern and western borders. In a report sent to the White House in September, Gen Stanley McChrystal, who commands US and Nato force in Afghanistan, warned, “increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani counter measures”. Britain wants to persuade regional players to cooperate rather than compete over Afghanistan. Among those best placed to mediate is Pakistan.
The prevailing US strategy in Afghanistan is to build a central government, commit it to the improvement of the lives of its people and then protect the population until that government’s own forces are able, with US training, to take over. It focuses on the very real need to increase Afghan security forces - the Afghan National Army to 240,000 and the Afghan National Police to 160,000 for a total security force of 400,000.
The prospects of the emerging scenario are for a reduced and limited US role in Afghanistan in the future alongside a larger policing role for Pakistan. Peace in Afghanistan is essential for peace in Pakistan and the region. As Pakistan is handling its on-going military operations in Waziristan and adjoining tribal areas, it is likely that Pakistan will come out stronger from the current imbroglio. Pakistan has cleared Swat of terrorists and is fighting them in South Waziristan.
Pakistan is the most affected country due to perpetual instability and violence in Afghanistan, hence acting in its own interest; it joined hands with the international community to combat terrorism. The success of military operations in the tribal regions have caused substantial decline in cross-border attacks on Nato forces in Afghanistan. There is a need for realisation of Pakistan’s key regional position and its contribution in the war. Pakistan has deployed more than 140,000 troops in fighting militants in the northwest along the Afghan border.
During last seven months, Pakistani military has launched 209 major and 510 minor operations in 10 regions, raising the death toll to 2,273 Army officers and soldiers in the fighting so far. Pakistan is trying to consolidate its gains lest it should fall back to the terrorists. “We want a strategic depth in Afghanistan but do not want to control it,” said, the Chief of the Army Staff Gen Kayani while analyzing the emerging situation.
Pakistan is prepared to train a 140,000-strong Afghan National Army force able to take over security responsibilities.Pakistan wants strategic partnership among Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Pakistan made strenuous efforts by brokering Peshawar and Islamabad accords to establish a broad-based government in Kabul. In the post-Taliban era, the broad objectives of the international coalition in Afghanistan are to eliminate the terrorist networks of al-Qaeda and to reconstruct the failed state.
The US military strategy so far has succeeded in dismantling the physical infrastructure and draining the financial network of the terrorists considerably, but the al-Qaeda leadership is still intact. The daunting task of rebuilding process is far from over. The current security problem in Afghanistan is likely to continue unless Afghan national security apparatus including police and army is not developed, which may take eight or ten years.
And the task of training ANA be given to Pakistan because it bore the major brunt of Afghans’ armed resistance against the Soviet occupation in terms of huge economic, social and political losses as a result of granting refuge to more than three and a half million Afghans, arms and drug trafficking, money-laundering, widespread acts of subversion etc.
Although no easy solutions are available to the Pak-Afghan problems and it will certainly be a long way for a durable mutual trust to build, some immediate measures like preserving Afghanistan’s integrity, balancing the structure of central government and denying the regional and extra-regional states to meddle with Afghan domestic affairs, can come handy to boost the bilateral relations.
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