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US Ponders Whether To Arm And Support Local Afghan Militia Forces
(NSI News Source Info) Washington - September 8, 2008: Experts are warning that it might prove counterproductive to extend to Afghanistan the U.S. strategy of forming and paying tribal militias to improve security -- though it has been credited with great successes in Iraq.
The U.S. military in Afghanistan denied such a move was being considered by senior officials, but the possibility is being discussed by officers on the ground.
"People are talking about it," said Vickram Singh, an expert with the centrist Center for a New American Security who returned recently from Afghanistan and told United Press International the idea of extending the strategy there had come up in briefings from the U.S. military.
He said detailed discussions about possibly supplying weapons and money were taking place "at an operational and tactical level -- identifying people who we (coalition military forces) could work with."
A spokesman for the U.S. military in Afghanistan denied that extending the strategy of arming and paying tribal militias was on the table. "We are not considering that," said Capt. Christian Patterson.
But it is being advocated, at least by some now outside the government.
Recently retired U.S. Army counterinsurgency expert Col. John Nagl welcomed the idea, saying that "buying off your enemies is ¿¿ a time-honored tactic in counterinsurgency with a proven track record of success."
"Over time, you try to incorporate those people into the government security organizations," Nagl added. "I absolutely think that there are tribal organizations in Afghanistan who could be incorporated. ¿¿ It would be a way to rapidly increase the size of (the Afghan National Police and National Army) with cohesive units."
But as UPI reported last month, the strategy of forming and paying Sunni tribal militias -- known variously as Awakening Councils or the Sons of Iraq -- to maintain security has run into trouble in Iraq, where efforts to integrate them into the nation's security forces have been stymied by the sectarian concerns of the Shiite-led government in Baghdad.
And several Afghanistan experts with whom UPI spoke said they had grave doubts about expanding the practice there, warning it would risk the fragile gains of the state-building strategy that the international community has been pursuing.
"At best, it would be a tactical gain, but also an immense strategic loss," said Ali Jalali, a former Afghan interior minister and now a visiting professor at the National Defense University, noting that by fragmenting power and undermining the authority of the central government, the strategy in the long run could actually worsen the instability it sought to ameliorate.
He called this "effort to gain peace through manipulating tribal dynamics" a "colonial approach."
Levels of corruption and instability were already much too high in the volatile border regions of the country, said retired Marine Col. Daniel Curfiss, also a professor at the National Defense University.
"My concern is, it would be throwing kindling on this (fire) ¿¿ to pay people who are already unwilling to relinquish power," he said.
"There are precedents, and the precedents are not terribly hopeful," said former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan James Dobbins, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of a recent study of state-building efforts in the war-ravaged country.
In the period immediately after the ouster of the Taliban government at the end of 2001, Dobbins said, the United States and its allies attempted to limit their military commitment by restricting peacekeeping troops to Kabul and using "tribal militias and warlords" to maintain security in the rest of the country.
"Over time it was found that that was not an adequate policy," said Dobbins.
Jalali said continuing efforts by coalition nations to work directly with tribal and other local leaders had been "one of the problems when I was interior minister" from 2003 to 2005. "They gave them weapons, money and vehicles."
In 2006, he said, the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai tried itself to use tribally based militias -- with unhappy results.
Most of the 12,000 members of the militias, formally titled the Afghan National Auxiliary Police, "either deserted with their arms and equipment or were more or less forced to join the insurgents," he said, adding that the force was scheduled to be finally phased out of existence by the end of the current year.
He also pointed out that years of war and insurgency in the tribal areas of Afghanistan had physically decimated the tribal leadership and eroded their influence. "Over the past 30 years, the influence of the traditional leaders has waned," he said, adding that it was warlords and extremists who had replaced them.
Even those who think the idea is worth considering are keen to stress the differences between the two theaters.
The political dynamic is different in Afghanistan, said Singh, because there, you would not be buying off enemies, but arming your friends.
"The people that we'd start working with are people that already support the government," he said. "They are aware of what's happening in Iraq and they are saying, 'You should do it here.'"
Many local leaders were "all too eager to get in the game," Jalali said.
He said he had met a delegation of two dozen tribal elders who had come to town to petition the government about security in their remote border region. They were saying, in effect, "If you can't take care of the border, give us the weapons and we'll do it," he said.
Jalali said a strategy of working through local militias was putting the cart before the horse. "The tribes will only stand up (against the extremists) if they see that the government had authority in their areas ¿¿ that is not the case today."
The priority should be building the capacity of the central government, Jalali said. "Capacity-building is the central challenge in Afghanistan today."
Singh said that was one of his concerns about the proposal, too.
"No one is thinking at the strategic level ¿¿ if this is the right answer," he said, adding there was "no analysis by the coalition of how this would play out."
"There's a lot of downside," he concluded.
US-India nuclear accord approved
(NSI News Source Info) September 8, 2008: India would get access to US civilian nuclear technology. The group of nations which regulates the global nuclear trade has approved a US proposal to lift restrictions on selling nuclear technology to India.
The controversial deal now needs to be ratified by the US Congress before it can be implemented.
India says the deal is vital for it to meet its civil energy demands.
The approval came after India pledged to keep its nuclear non-proliferation commitments and to uphold a voluntary moratorium on testing atomic weapons.
'End of isolation'
It took the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) nearly three days of protracted negotiations in Vienna to reach agreement.
Critics of the deal say it creates a dangerous precedent - effectively allowing India to expand its nuclear power industry without requiring it to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as other nations must.
They say the deal would undermine the arguments for isolating Iran over its nuclear programme and be a disaster for international non-proliferation efforts.
Indian PM Manmohan Singh described the deal as "momentous". But US and Indian officials hailed the agreement as one that would help limit the unregulated spread of nuclear technology and material while allowing India to meet its energy demands with a "clean and reliable" supply.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the NSG decision "marks the end of India's decades-long isolation from the nuclear mainstream and of the technology denial regime".
Austria, New Zealand and Ireland lifted their objection to the US proposal after India made a formal pledge to not share sensitive nuclear technology or material and to uphold its moratorium on testing nuclear weapons.
The breakthrough reportedly came after US President George W Bush lobbied members of the NSG.
"This is a critically important moment for meeting the energy needs in India, and indeed dealing with the global need for clean and reliable energy supplies," said John Rood, acting US undersecretary of state for arms control.
'Huge difference'
The US restricted nuclear co-operation with India after it tested a nuclear weapon in 1974.
The current deal is the centrepiece of US efforts to bolster ties with India. However, the Bush administration must attempt to rush it through Congress before legislators break to prepare for November's elections - held at the same time as the presidential vote.
India's main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the communists - former allies of the governing Congress party who withdrew support for the government over the nuclear deal - have accused the government of "deceiving" the country.
"There is a huge difference between what the US government is telling its Congress and what our government is telling us," BJP leader Yashwant Sinha told reporters.
Under the terms of the deal, India would open 14 civilian nuclear facilities to inspection - but its nuclear weapons sites would remain off-limits.
Critics fear assistance to India's civil programme could free-up additional radioactive material for bomb-making purposes.
The Mi-24 attack / transport helicopter.
Over 2,500 Mi-24 helicopters have been produced.
Observers following the saga of the Varyag, the partially built Soviet aircraft carrier purchased by China from Ukraine in 1998, have speculated for years about the vessel's ultimate purpose.
China reached a deal with Russia in late 2006 for up to 50 Su-33 fighter aircraft, which the Sukhoi aviation bureau designed specifically for carrier operations.
The Varyag did not actually make it to China until 2002 because Turkey feared that the vessel, which required towing, could founder in the Bosphorus and impede shipping.
The MiG-21 2000 upgraded fighter and ground attack version of the MiG-21 fighter aircraft.
The MiG-21 2000 cockpit after upgrade and modernisation.
Further development has afforded the MiG-21 2000 aircraft air-to-ground capabilities, extended range and more advanced sensors.
The DASH helmet allows the pilot to fly head-up and off-boresight.
The MiG-21-93 fighter is a derivative of the MiG-21bis.
The Brazilian Marines Order Further Five MOWAG PIRANHA IIIC 8x8 Vehicles
Sanghee Lee, the Minister of National Defence, representing the Republic of Korea, the country to provide technical support and assistance for the Project and the upper management representatives of Aselsan, Hyundai-Rotem, Makine ve Kimya Endustrisi Kurumu and Roketsan were also present at the ceremony.
Mr Kudret Onen, President of Koç Holding Defence Industry and Other Automotive Group and Chairman of Otokar, stated that backed with its engineering power, R&D facilities, experiences and technical facilities, Otokar is ready to design new generation tank which will fully meet the requirements of the Turkish Armed Forces, and said: "We pride ourselves on being charged for such a large-scale national project of strategic importance. As it was always the case, we will work hard to deserve this confidence in our Company, in order to attain the result befitting our country. For 45 years, we have introduced many firsts to the automotive industry. We have designed the first military armoured vehicle and we realised export of armoured vehicles for the first time.
"Since 21 years we are operating in the defence industry. 25 thousand military vehicles we produced are being used by Armed Forces of more than 15 countries, primarily by the Turkish Armed Forces, and UN duty units in several regions of the world. With ALTAY Project, we will break new ground."
Mr Mustafa V Koc, Chairman of Koc Holding, stated that he is pleased that an affiliate of the Koc Holding is preferred for the completion of ALTAY Project, which is of utmost importance for Turkey’s national defence industry strategy, and said: "It is certain that this Project will bring enormous acceleration to the land platform development and production field of the defence industry. In order to become leader in its region, Turkey requires stable government, growing economy and strong armed forces. Considering the prevailing threats and contemporary battle area conditions, it becomes evident that modern equipment, tools and devices which of hi-tech products and capable to dispose of potential threats must be available further to manpower in order to have contemporary and strong armed forces. We have to develop its own resources and capabilities and to develop our own technology also in this field. Only in this way we can cope with the modern era and attain sustainable growth in the national industry.
"Our national defence industry will have great contributions to and responsibilities for enabling us to reach the targeted point, regarding the development of their competence and capacity. Long-term approach, vision and leadership are factors required to attain success. We, as the Koç Group of Companies, make great efforts and use large resources for the defence industry for a long time and consequently we accomplish very successful projects. With our companies Otokar, RMK Marine, Koç Bilgi and Defence Technologies we aim to be able to export our products to the geographical region in the long term, as part of the international competition, beyond being able to meet the requirements of the national defence industry."
Murad Bayar, Undersecretary of SSM, talking at the ceremony, said that it’s very important that the ALTAY Project reached to the contract signing phase. He also added that this Project will supply Turkish Armed Forces, the third generation modern main battle tank. He said further: "The studies on the modern tank project firstly started on 1996 and was targeted on a production under licence of an existing tank in the world. But this project stopped on 2004 because of the high costs. In 2005, we started working on Turkish National Main Battle Tank Project and in 2007 Otokar had been chosen as the prime contractor of the Project. And the project is called ALTAY. The first 7 years of the Project will enclose the prototype production and testing functions. After the prototype tanks completed the serial production will start for the first 250 tanks."
All intellectual and ownership rights of the ALTAY tank belongs to Turkey. As result of the contract signed, the ALTAY Tank to be developed under prime contractorship of Otokar will bring our country’s dependency on external resources to end. The Republic of Turkey shall own all design and intellectual property rights vested on the ALTAY tank.
The technical data package, which contains all information and documents related with the design, development, integration, test and production of the ALTAY tank and which will constitute the basis for mass production, shall be owned by the Republic of Turkey, without any restriction and with all rights pertaining there to.
The estimated budget for design, prototype production, tests and qualification of the ALTAY tank, which will provide new technologies and skills to the Turkish defence industry, is declared to amount to $500 million.
AFGHANISTAN: The Land Of A Thousand Scams
((NSI News Source Info) September 7, 2008: Rumors that Afghan president Karzai is on the drug gangs payroll has become more obvious, as he pushes for getting veto power over U.S. and NATO military operations. This came to a head recently, because of a battle in western Afghanistan two weeks ago. There, a U.S./Afghan raid on a village was met with fire from several dozen Taliban who had taken shelter there. Smart bombs were used, the U.S. and Afghan troops went in to search the ruins for Taliban documents and to count the bodies. There were 25 Taliban and five civilians dead. After the troops left, the Taliban began pushing the story that 70, or more, civilians, including fifty children, were killed. The number constantly changed. The reason was that, since the Moslem custom is to bury the dead immediately, and forbid exhuming bodies for any kind of examination, you can pull off this kind of scam if you have the locals terrified into keeping quiet. Then there's the "compensation" scam angle. Foreign troops will pay thousands of dollars (often over $5,000) in compensation for loss, per civilian killed during military operations. So Afghans have an incentive to claim as many dead as they can get away with. Afghan culture puts a premium on scamming foreigners. Any Afghan who doesn't try to hustle an outsider is looked down on. It's the ancient "us versus them" mentality, which applies even of the outsider is helping you. Afghans were quick to pick up on how all this plays in the West, and have learned how to manipulate foreign journalists and NGOs (who are often adjuncts of Western media).
President Karzai knows of these scams and how Afghans regard foreigners, but he is under pressure to get the military heat off the drug gangs. Foreign troops, particularly British and Canadian, have done lots of damage to heroin production in Helmand province (where most Afghan heroin is produced), and the gangs are putting pressure on the senior Afghan officials on the payroll to do something. Karzai was told by his top military commander in the west, and the local commando commander, that the claim of 50 dead children was a scam, and Karzai reacted by relieving the two men and ordering them to Kabul for questioning. Kabul is not a safe place for those who oppose the drug gangs, as judge who could not be bribed was recently murdered there, as he was in the midst of dealing with drug cases.
The drug gangs are hurting. In addition to increasing foreign military action in Helmand province, there has been a drought. This has cut this year's heroin production by about a fifth. Some serious money is being lost, and the drug warlords and tribal leaders who took the losses are intent on fixing the problem. Even with the drop, U.S. anti-drug experts expect the Taliban to net $70 million from their participation in the drug trade. This is three or four times the take in the second most popular Taliban money maker-kidnapping.
Meanwhile, in areas, like Helmand, where the drug gangs are strong, the police either go along or get out. This means bandits are free to operate with few restrictions. This has led to an increase in highway robbery (often via a fake police checkpoint) and kidnapping. It's gotten so bad that deminers are again being grabbed, and being held for ransom. For over two decades, most Afghans have agreed to leave the deminers (who are largely Afghans by now) alone. But now that most of the mines have been cleared, the outlaws feel deminers are fair game.
While the drug gangs are complaining of Western military pressure, the Taliban have more headaches across the border in Pakistan. There, a new government, and a new commander of the Pakistani army, have turned up the heat on the Taliban. Over a thousand Pakistani Taliban have been killed or wounded in the last few weeks, and Afghan Taliban leaders who are based in Pakistan, are no longer safe. Some have already been arrested, and most others are fleeing for the uncertain safety of Afghanistan.
The Afghan Army currently has 68,000 troops, but 12 percent are in training. Current plans call for a 90,000 man force by the end of next year. New plans will expand that to 134,000 two or three years after that. Afghanistan can't afford an army much larger than 70-80,000 men, if paying the bills itself. The additional troops are being paid for by NATO and the United States, and when those subsidies go away, Afghan will have to shrink its force.
September 4, 2008: The Taliban were heartened by a recent Canadian poll showing that 61 percent of Canadians believe the expense, in money and the lives of Canadian troops, is not worth it in Afghanistan. The Taliban have been concentrating on killing Canadian troops, for the purpose of influencing public opinion back home. The Taliban believe that this public opinion will cause Canadian troops to be withdrawn from Afghanistan. Current Canadian public opinion is still willing to keep troops in Afghanistan through 2011, but not after that. The Taliban believe time is on their side.
September 2, 2008: U.S. and Afghan troops killed 220 Taliban in Helmand province in the last week, and shut down more drug operations. What caused most of the Taliban losses was an elaborate British operation to truck in a 200 ton turbine, and other equipment, for a dam power plant in Helmand province. The Taliban have been trying to shut down this dam, and its partly completed power plant, for years. The Taliban believe that the electricity from the expanded power plant will give Afghans in the area less reason to support the Taliban.
Israeli president opposes attack on Iran's nuclear sites
(NSI News Source Info) JERUSALEM - September 7, 2008:Israeli President Shimon Peres said on Sunday he opposes a military strike on Iran and prefers the use of international economic sanctions to persuade Tehran to halt its nuclear enrichment programme."A military operation is not necessary. I do not think the Americans think in these terms because they have many other cards to play," Peres told Israeli public radio after a meeting with US Vice President Dick Cheney in Italy."If the Americans manage to form a coalition to unify their positions with those of Europeans, they have sufficient means to exert pressure on the Iranians," Peres added.Peres had met Cheney on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti forum on Italy's Lake Como, an international gathering of leaders and experts focused mostly on economic issues.Israel and the West have repeatedly called on Iran to halt its uranium enrichment programme, which they fear is aimed at developing nuclear weapons but which Tehran defends as part of a peaceful energy venture.Israel, the region's sole if undeclared nuclear-armed state, has considered Iran its main strategic threat after repeated predictions of its demise by senior Iranian leaders.Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said last month after a meeting with visiting US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Israel would not rule out any options to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.Tehran meanwhile risks a possible fourth round of UN sanctions after it failed to give a clear response to an incentives package offered by six major world powers in return for halting uranium enrichment, a process which makes nuclear fuel but also the core of an atomic bomb.
Russian Navy to adopt new carrier fighters after 2016
(NSI News Source Info) GELENDZHIK (South Russia) - September 7, 2008: Russia's new carrier-based fighters will replace the Su-33 naval fighter in service with the Russian Navy after 2016, a senior military official said on Sunday.
The Su-33 (NATO reporting name 'Flanker-D') is a carrier-based multi-role fighter, which can perform a variety of air superiority, fleet defense, air support and reconnaissance missions. The aircraft entered service with the Russian Navy in 1995 and are currently deployed on board the Nikolai Kuznetsov aircraft carrier.
"The Russian Navy will adopt new carrier-based aircraft after 2016," said Maj. Gen. Nikolai Kuklev, the deputy commander of Russia's naval aviation.
"At present, we are considering modernization and extension of service life for the Su-33 aircraft. It will certainly stay in service until 2015," the general said.
He said the Navy will hold a tender on the new carrier fighter after 2010, which will involve the Su-27KUB Flanker and MiG-29K Fulcrum fighters.
"Both aircraft have advantages and disadvantages. For instance, the Su-27KUB is heavier, but has a longer flight range. MiG-29K is lighter but its combat range is shorter," Kuklev said, adding that a "golden average" has to be chosen.
At present, Russia has only one operational aircraft carrier, the Nikolai Kuznetsov, which was commissioned in the early 1990s and has recently re-entered service after a prolonged overhaul. The ship, also known as Project 1143.5 heavy aircraft carrier, is currently deployed with Russia's Northern Fleet and has recently participated in a two-month tour to the Mediterranean as part of Russia's plans to resume its continual presence in different regions of the world's seas.
"We are considering extending the service life of the carrier. It will stay in service until 2020 and may be even until 2025," Kuklev said.
The general also confirmed that a decision to build new aircraft carriers for the Russian Navy had been adopted.
Russia's Navy commander, Adm. Vladimir Vysotsky, said in July that the Navy command had decided to form in the future 5-6 aircraft carrier task forces to be deployed with the Northern and Pacific fleets.
Iran set to hold large-scale war games with air defense drills
(NSI News Source Info) TEHRAN - September 7, 2008: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and armed forces will begin on Monday a three-day military exercise to test new weaponry and practice repelling potential air strikes on its territory, the local media said on Sunday.
"The main goal of the exercise is to evaluate the combat readiness [of the Iranian army], to test new weapons developed by Iranian scientists, and to practice defensive measures in case of a potential violation of the Iranian airspace by the enemy," the media said.
International media have recently carried reports about a possible military attack by Israel and the United States on Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran has reacted to rumors of an imminent attack by Israel or the U.S. by promising to deliver a "powerful blow" to any aggressor.
According to military experts Iran has relatively modest air defenses, which were recently strengthened with a delivery of 29 Russian-made Tor-M1 air defense missile systems under a $700-million contract signed in late 2005. Russia has also trained Iranian Tor-M1 specialists, including radar operators and crew commanders.
Iran also successfully launched in July an upgraded Shahab-3 ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 km (1,240 miles) and several missiles with a range of 350 kilometers (217 miles) as part of the Great Prophet III military exercise in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, drawing a new wave of international criticism.
Iran is currently under three sets of relatively mild UN Security Council sanctions for defying demands to halt uranium enrichment, which it says it needs purely for electricity generation despite Western accusations that the program is geared toward weapon production.