DTN News - PAKISTAN NEWS: Senior Pakistan Militant Reported Dead In Strike

DTN News - PAKISTAN NEWS: Senior Pakistan Militant Reported Dead In Strike

Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Tom Wright - WSJ
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 3, 2013: A U.S. drone strike killed Mullah Nazir, a Pakistani militant leader who maintained a truce with the Pakistan army but U.S. commanders said cooperated with Afghan Taliban fighters in attacks on U.S. troops, according to news reports.

Mr. Nazir was one of nine people killed in the strike on a house in a village in the Pakistani territory of South Waziristan, the Associated Press reported, citing Pakistani security officials. Another strike hit a vehicle in North Waziristan, killing four people, the AP said.

In Washington, U.S. officials stopped short of confirming Mr. Nazir's death, but said his elimination would be a "significant blow."

"It would be helpful not just to the United States, but also to our Pakistani partners and the Afghans," said George Little, the Pentagon press secretary. "This is someone who has a great deal of blood on his hands.…This would be a major development."


Mr. Nazir's militant organization controls areas of South Waziristan that border Afghanistan. He used that position to team up with Afghan Taliban fighters battling coalition troops across the border, U.S. commanders said.

Mr. Nazir refrained from attacking Pakistani troops under a truce that held for the past four years, said Imtiaz Gul, author of "Pakistan Before and After Osama."

That allowed Pakistan's army to concentrate on targeting the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, known as the Pakistan Taliban, a militant group that regularly attacked government, military and civilian targets. In 2009, the army invaded South Waziristan and largely pushed out the group, also many of whose fighters found shelter in North Waziristan and other tribal regions.

Pakistan's truce with Mr. Nazir, who led the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe, was an attempt by the government to show progress in bringing South Waziristan back under the writ of the state after years of lawlessness, Mr. Gul said.

In recent months, the military has allowed hundreds of refugees from the fighting in 2009 to return to South Waziristan and has been showcasing new schools, roads and other infrastructure.

But Mr. Nazir also continued to allow foreign militants to take shelter in his territory, undercutting any chance for long-term stability in the region, Mr. Gul said. Those militants, he said, likely included Arab members of al Qaeda who are believed to have taken part in attacks on Pakistani targets.

"It was a double game he was playing," Mr. Gul said. "I don't think the Pakistanis would be annoyed" by his killing.

Pakistan's military has publicly condemned U.S. drone strikes. But Pakistan military leaders also have acknowledged cooperating on some attacks by giving intelligence on potential targets.

—Julian E. Barnes contributed to this article.
Corrections & Amplifications 
Imtiaz Gul is author of the book "Pakistan Before and After Osama." An earlier version of this article incorrectly gave the title as "Pakistan Before and After Obama."


*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Tom Wright - WSJ
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DTN News - PAKISTAN DEFENSE NEWS: Pakistan Moves To Build Its Own Drones, Push Aside U.S.

DTN News - PAKISTAN DEFENSE NEWS: Pakistan Moves To Build Its Own Drones, Push Aside U.S.

Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Dion Nissenbaum - Wall Street Journal
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - December 20, 2012: This country's defense industry is building what companies hope will be a domestic fleet of aerial drones that can take over the U.S.'s role in attacking militant strongholds.

The U.S.'s persistent use of armed drones to kill militants in remote parts of Pakistan has created a public backlash that has damaged the relationship between the two nations.
American attempts to reduce the number of civilian casualties by tightening oversight of such strikes have done little to reduce popular opposition in Pakistan to the attacks nor mute Pakistani leaders' routine protests.

But Pakistan isn't altogether against drones. The nation's leaders want to have more control over where and how they are used, and are encouraging local drone makers to build up the country's budding arsenal.

"The future era is toward unmanned operations," said Sawd Rehman, deputy director of Rawalpindi, Pakistan-based Xpert Engineering, which builds aerial drones. "The policy of self-reliance is always priority No. 1 of every nation."

Mr. Rehman is part of a new wave of executives in the Pakistani defense industry who have studied American drone strikes with a mix of scorn and envy. He and other Pakistanis view U.S. drone attacks on militant sanctuaries as counterproductive because of the anti-American hostility they have fueled.

Instead, Xpert and a small number of other companies are working to develop the country's own fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles—a force they hope will one day supplant the American drones that dominate the country's border with Afghanistan.

"We have tried our best asking the United States to transfer this technology to us so we can fight our own war instead of somebody from abroad coming and doing it," said Maj. Gen. Tahir Ashraf Khan, director general of Pakistan's Defense Export Promotion Organization. 

"Those efforts did not meet with success, so we decided to venture into this field ourselves—and we have gone pretty far ahead."

Pakistan's military already uses a small but growing number of unarmed drones, some of them manufactured at home, to monitor the borders, coast and mountain ranges that serve as sanctuaries for some of the world's most wanted militant leaders, including the Taliban and its allied Haqqani Network.

U.S. officials agreed last year to sell Islamabad several dozen small, unarmed Raven model drones with limited short-range surveillance capabilities. American officials have steadfastly opposed Pakistani requests for the transfer of U.S. armed drone technology to Pakistan.
The Pentagon declined to comment on Pakistan's drone program or the reasons for not giving it U.S. technology.

Washington is resuming about $1 billion in military aid after freezing it when Pakistan blocked U.S. access to supply lines into Afghanistan. That followed an American border strike that killed 25 Pakistani troops in November 2011. The standoff ended over the summer with a U.S. apology.

Without advanced satellite technology, the Pakistanis are incapable of developing armed drones by themselves now. It will take years, if not decades, for Pakistan to develop a fleet of armed drones to rival America's Predator and Reaper models, many analysts and people in the industry say.

"We don't have the capability," said Muhammad Sulaiman, a sales manager for Global Industrial Defense Solutions, or GIDS, a consortium of Pakistani companies that sells drones, tanks and planes to the nation's military. "Maybe Pakistan will need another 50 years."
To expand its capabilities, Pakistan is looking for help from China, which has marketed its own version of armed drones to developing countries.

"Pakistan can also benefit from China in defense collaboration, offsetting the undeclared technological apartheid," Pakistan Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf said at a recent arms expo in Karachi, in apparent reference to U.S. reluctance to share its technology with Pakistan.

GIDS produces one of Pakistan's newest and most advanced drones, a medium-range vehicle called the Shahpar that can fly for about seven hours—a fraction of the 40 hours a Predator can spend in the sky.

To supplement its nascent drone industry, Pakistan has been working with Italy's Selex Galileo SpA to produce a medium-range Falco drone with limited capabilities that the Pakistani military has been using for surveillance since at least 2009, when the government staged operations against militants based in Swat Valley in northeastern Pakistan.

While Pakistan has looked to other countries to advance its drone capabilities, one Pakistani company said it has exported a small number of drones to a private company in the U.S.
Raja Sabri Khan, chief executive of Integrated Dynamics, a Karachi-based drone manufacturer, said he thought the U.S.'s use of armed drones has given the industry a bad name. He aims to help rehabilitate the perception of drones by promoting their peaceful uses, such as the ability to locate flood victims for rescue. "Drones can be used for saving lives, for security," he said. "I'm absolutely against drones for armed purposes."This country's defense industry is building what companies hope will be a domestic fleet of aerial drones that can take over the U.S.'s role in attacking militant strongholds.

The U.S.'s persistent use of armed drones to kill militants in remote parts of Pakistan has created a public backlash that has damaged the relationship between the two nations.
American attempts to reduce the number of civilian casualties by tightening oversight of such strikes have done little to reduce popular opposition in Pakistan to the attacks nor mute Pakistani leaders' routine protests.

But Pakistan isn't altogether against drones. The nation's leaders want to have more control over where and how they are used, and are encouraging local drone makers to build up the country's budding arsenal.

"The future era is toward unmanned operations," said Sawd Rehman, deputy director of Rawalpindi, Pakistan-based Xpert Engineering, which builds aerial drones. "The policy of self-reliance is always priority No. 1 of every nation."

Mr. Rehman is part of a new wave of executives in the Pakistani defense industry who have studied American drone strikes with a mix of scorn and envy. He and other Pakistanis view U.S. drone attacks on militant sanctuaries as counterproductive because of the anti-American hostility they have fueled.

Instead, Xpert and a small number of other companies are working to develop the country's own fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles—a force they hope will one day supplant the American drones that dominate the country's border with Afghanistan.

"We have tried our best asking the United States to transfer this technology to us so we can fight our own war instead of somebody from abroad coming and doing it," said Maj. Gen. Tahir Ashraf Khan, director general of Pakistan's Defense Export Promotion Organization. "Those efforts did not meet with success, so we decided to venture into this field ourselves—and we have gone pretty far ahead."

Pakistan's military already uses a small but growing number of unarmed drones, some of them manufactured at home, to monitor the borders, coast and mountain ranges that serve as sanctuaries for some of the world's most wanted militant leaders, including the Taliban and its allied Haqqani Network.

U.S. officials agreed last year to sell Islamabad several dozen small, unarmed Raven model drones with limited short-range surveillance capabilities. American officials have steadfastly opposed Pakistani requests for the transfer of U.S. armed drone technology to Pakistan.
The Pentagon declined to comment on Pakistan's drone program or the reasons for not giving it U.S. technology.

Washington is resuming about $1 billion in military aid after freezing it when Pakistan blocked U.S. access to supply lines into Afghanistan. That followed an American border strike that killed 25 Pakistani troops in November 2011. The standoff ended over the summer with a U.S. apology.

Without advanced satellite technology, the Pakistanis are incapable of developing armed drones by themselves now. It will take years, if not decades, for Pakistan to develop a fleet of armed drones to rival America's Predator and Reaper models, many analysts and people in the industry say.

"We don't have the capability," said Muhammad Sulaiman, a sales manager for Global Industrial Defense Solutions, or GIDS, a consortium of Pakistani companies that sells drones, tanks and planes to the nation's military. "Maybe Pakistan will need another 50 years."

To expand its capabilities, Pakistan is looking for help from China, which has marketed its own version of armed drones to developing countries.

"Pakistan can also benefit from China in defense collaboration, offsetting the undeclared technological apartheid," Pakistan Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf said at a recent arms expo in Karachi, in apparent reference to U.S. reluctance to share its technology with Pakistan.

GIDS produces one of Pakistan's newest and most advanced drones, a medium-range vehicle called the Shahpar that can fly for about seven hours—a fraction of the 40 hours a Predator can spend in the sky.

To supplement its nascent drone industry, Pakistan has been working with Italy's Selex Galileo SpA to produce a medium-range Falco drone with limited capabilities that the Pakistani military has been using for surveillance since at least 2009, when the government staged operations against militants based in Swat Valley in northeastern Pakistan.

While Pakistan has looked to other countries to advance its drone capabilities, one Pakistani company said it has exported a small number of drones to a private company in the U.S.
Raja Sabri Khan, chief executive of Integrated Dynamics, a Karachi-based drone manufacturer, said he thought the U.S.'s use of armed drones has given the industry a bad name. He aims to help rehabilitate the perception of drones by promoting their peaceful uses, such as the ability to locate flood victims for rescue. "Drones can be used for saving lives, for security," he said. "I'm absolutely against drones for armed purposes."

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Dion Nissenbaum - Wall Street Journal
*Speaking Image - Creation of DTN News ~ Defense Technology News 
*This article is being posted from Toronto, Canada By DTN News ~ Defense-Technology News Contact:dtnnews@ymail.com 
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DTN News - DEFENSE NEWS: Pakistan Seeks End To Drones

DTN News - DEFENSE NEWS: Pakistan Seeks End To Drones
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Tom Wright - The Wall Street Journal Asia
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - March 21, 2012: A Pakistan parliamentary commission called for the U.S. to end drone strikes on its territory and to formally apologize for killing 24 Pakistani soldiers in November.

The demands were made as part of a debate in Parliament Tuesday over how the country should pursue relations with the U.S. in the wake of public anger over the unintentional killing of the Pakistan soldiers by firing from U.S. helicopters.

Pakistan's government retaliated last year by stopping the North Atlantic Treaty Organization from using its territory to provision troops in Afghanistan, forcing NATO to route more of its equipment and other supplies through Central Asia.

Islamabad said it wouldn't reopen the supply routes until Parliament had a chance to re-evaluate the country's relations with the U.S. High-level military and civilian visits to Pakistan by U.S. officials have been suspended in recent months until Parliament can conclude its debate, which has been delayed many times.

White House and State Department officials said they were awaiting the full parliamentary process before responding to requests for an apology. Washington is waiting to hear from the Pakistani government about how they would like to move forward, White House spokesman Jay Carney said.

Although U.S. officials say much routine business, including civilian aid projects and lower-level military contacts, has continued unaffected, the tensions have destabilized bilateral relations at a time when the U.S. was hoping Pakistan could play a role in helping develop peace talks with the Afghan Taliban.

The level of public anger in Pakistan toward the U.S. has been rising. Many Pakistanis oppose drone strikes against Taliban militants, which they believe kill large numbers of civilians.

U.S. officials deny sizable civilian casualties, and the Pakistan military says it has shared intelligence occasionally on strike targets.

The NATO raid in November along the Afghan border that killed the Pakistani soldiers sent relations to a new low. The Obama administration's failure to apologize, despite calls from the U.S. State Department to do so, further aggravated the strained relationship.

Still, some Pakistani analysts say the country realizes it needs U.S. civilian and military aid and is unlikely to break ties despite the recent political theater.

"The normalization of the relationship will definitely happen, and supplies will resume," said Hasan-Askari Rizvi, a political analyst in Lahore.

Expectations that NATO supply routes might reopen were raised earlier this month when Gen. James Mattis, commander of U.S. Central Command, told Congress he would soon visit Pakistan to discuss the matter.

Delays in the parliamentary hearing appear to have set back that trip, which is still expected though it isn't formally scheduled, a U.S. official said.

Pakistani lawmakers are likely to vote on a resolution about ties with the U.S. next week, after which Pakistan's government and powerful military will decide how to proceed.

Pakistan's leaders are likely to push Washington for a formal apology as a prerequisite to re-engaging with senior U.S. officials and reopening NATO supply routes, Mr. Rizvi said.

The government, though, is unlikely to make a demand for the cessation of drone strikes a precondition to resumption of normal ties, he added.

Write to Tom Wright at tom.wright@wsj.com

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Tom Wright - The Wall Street Journal Asia
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DTN News - DRONES DEFENSE NEWS: New Drone Has No Pilot Anywhere, So Who's Accountable?

DTN News - DRONES DEFENSE NEWS: New Drone Has No Pilot Anywhere, So Who's Accountable?
*The Navy is testing an autonomous plane that will land on an aircraft carrier. The prospect of heavily armed aircraft screaming through the skies without direct human control is unnerving to many
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By W.J. Hennigan, Los Angeles Times    
 (NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 26, 2012: The Navy's new drone being tested near Chesapeake Bay stretches the boundaries of technology: It's designed to land on the deck of an aircraft carrier, one of aviation's most difficult maneuvers.

• Graphic: No pilot, no problem
• U.S. drone strike in Pakistan ends six-week pause; 4 dead
• Air Force buys an Avenger, its biggest and fastest armed drone
• Drone helicopter brings supplies to U.S. troops in Afghanistan
• Civilian contractors playing key roles in U.S. drone operations
• Full coverage: Drones

What's even more remarkable is that it will do that not only without a pilot in the cockpit, but without a pilot at all.

The X-47B marks a paradigm shift in warfare, one that is likely to have far-reaching consequences. With the drone's ability to be flown autonomously by onboard computers, it could usher in an era when death and destruction can be dealt by machines operating semi-independently.

GRAPHIC: How the X-47B lands

Although humans would program an autonomous drone's flight plan and could override its decisions, the prospect of heavily armed aircraft screaming through the skies without direct human control is unnerving to many.

"Lethal actions should have a clear chain of accountability," said Noel Sharkey, a computer scientist and robotics expert. "This is difficult with a robot weapon. The robot cannot be held accountable. So is it the commander who used it? The politician who authorized it? The military's acquisition process? The manufacturer, for faulty equipment?"

Sharkey and others believe that autonomous armed robots should force the kind of dialogue that followed the introduction of mustard gas in World War I and the development of atomic weapons in World War II. The International Committee of the Red Cross, the group tasked by the Geneva Conventions to protect victims in armed conflict, is already examining the issue.

"The deployment of such systems would reflect … a major qualitative change in the conduct of hostilities," committee President Jakob Kellenberger said at a recent conference. "The capacity to discriminate, as required by [international humanitarian law], will depend entirely on the quality and variety of sensors and programming employed within the system."

Weapons specialists in the military and Congress acknowledge that policymakers must deal with these ethical questions long before these lethal autonomous drones go into active service, which may be a decade or more away.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) said policy probably will first be discussed with the bipartisan drone caucus that he co-chairs with Rep. Howard P. "Buck" McKeon (R-Santa Clarita). Officially known as the Congressional Unmanned Systems Caucus, the panel was formed in 2009 to inform members of Congress on the far-reaching applications of drone technology.

"It's a different world from just a few years ago — we've entered the realm of science fiction in a lot of ways," Cuellar said. "New rules have to be developed as new technology comes about, and this is a big step forward."

Aerial drones now piloted remotely have become a central weapon for the CIA and U.S. military in their campaign against terrorists in the Middle East. The Pentagon has gone from an inventory of a handful of drones before Sept. 11, 2001, to about 7,500 drones, about one-third of all military aircraft.

Despite looming military spending cuts, expenditures on drones are expected to take less of a hit, if any, because they are cheaper to build and operate than piloted aircraft.

All military services are moving toward greater automation with their robotic systems. Robotic armed submarines could one day stalk enemy waters, and automated tanks could engage soldiers on the battlefield.

"More aggressive robotry development could lead to deploying far fewer U.S. military personnel to other countries, achieving greater national security at a much lower cost and most importantly, greatly reduced casualties," aerospace pioneer Simon Ramo, who helped develop the intercontinental ballistic missile, wrote in his new book, "Let Robots Do the Dying."

The Air Force wrote in an 82-page report that outlines the future usage of drones, titled "Unmanned Aircraft Systems Flight Plan 2009-2047," that autonomous drone aircraft are key "to increasing effects while potentially reducing cost, forward footprint and risk." Much like a chess master can outperform proficient chess players, future drones will be able to react faster than human pilots ever could, the report said.

And with that potential comes new concerns about how much control of the battlefield the U.S. is willing to turn over to computers.

There is no plan by the U.S. military — at least in the near term — to turn over the killing of enemy combatants to the X-47B or any other autonomous flying machine. But the Air Force said in the "Flight Plan" that it's only a matter of time before drones have the capability to make life-or-death decisions as they circle the battlefield. Even so, the report notes that officials will still monitor how these drones are being used.

"Increasingly humans will no longer be 'in the loop' but rather 'on the loop' — monitoring the execution of certain decisions," the report said. "Authorizing a machine to make lethal combat decisions is contingent upon political and military leaders resolving legal and ethical questions."

Peter W. Singer, author of "Wired for War," a book about robotic warfare, said automated military targeting systems are under development. But before autonomous aerial drones are sent on seek-and-destroy missions, he said, the military must first prove that it can pull off simpler tasks, such as refueling and reconnaissance missions.

That's where the X-47B comes in.

"Like it or not, autonomy is the future," Singer said. "The X-47 is one of many programs that aim to perfect the technology."

The X-47B is an experimental jet — that's what the X stands for — and is designed to demonstrate new technology, such as automated takeoffs, landings and refueling. The drone also has a fully capable weapons bay with a payload capacity of 4,500 pounds, but the Navy said it has no plans to arm it.

The Navy is now testing two of the aircraft, which were built behind razor-wire fences at Northrop Grumman Corp.'s expansive complex in Palmdale, where the company manufactured the B-2 stealth bomber.

Funded under a $635.8-million contract awarded by the Navy in 2007, the X-47B Unmanned Combat Air System Carrier Demonstration program has grown in cost to an estimated $813 million.

Last February, the first X-47B had its maiden flight from Edwards Air Force Base, where it continued testing until last month when it was carried from the Mojave Desert to Naval Air Station Patuxent River in southern Maryland. It is there that the next stage of the demonstration program begins.

The drone is slated to first land on a carrier by 2013, relying on pinpoint GPS coordinates and advanced avionics. The carrier's computers digitally transmit the carrier's speed, cross-winds and other data to the drone as it approaches from miles away.

The X-47B will not only land itself, but will also know what kind of weapons it is carrying, when and where it needs to refuel with an aerial tanker, and whether there's a nearby threat, said Carl Johnson, Northrop's X-47B program manager. "It will do its own math and decide what it should do next."
william.hennigan@latimes.com

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources 
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DTN News - AFGHAN WAR NEWS: Failing To Learn ~ US Resumes Drone Attacks In Pakistan

DTN News - AFGHAN WAR NEWS: Failing To Learn ~ US Resumes Drone Attacks In Pakistan
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Myra MacDonald - Reuters
 (NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - January 17, 2012: When Pakistan’s Express Tribune wrote this week that the CIA was likely to resume drone strikes for the first time since November, it included a quote from an unnamed Pakistani official saying that Pakistani authorities believed drones were “strategically harmful but tactically advantageous”.  I tweeted the link and asked who would explain to the Pakistani public that the drone strikes – which have fuelled intense anti-Americanism – were seen even in their own country as “tactically advantageous”.

One of the answers was particularly telling. It was from a supporter of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) of former cricketer Imran Khan – who has risen in popularity on a wave of anti-Americanism, opposition to drone strikes, and belief the government of President Asif Ali Zardari has sold out to the United States. Here is the tweet:

“I find this so infuriating. It is about time the present #Zardari administration was shown the door. #PTI for #Pakistan”

Yet the popular view that American money is being used to bribe Zardari into allowing the country to be attacked by U.S. missiles has no basis in reality. In as much as drone strikes are discussed with Pakistan – and there is a great deal of disagreement about how far they should be used - the “red lines” have been negotiated with the Pakistan Army, which controls foreign and security policy.  Such is the lack of transparency in Pakistan.

But if that seems too strange, then let’s look at the approach in the United States to drones.  We might, perhaps, have expected it to use the pause in drone strikes to improve their transparency. Indeed, given their impact in fuelling anti-Americanism, Washington might have considered publishing some photographs to prove its contention that the drone strikes do not cause the kind of civilian casualties assumed in Pakistan? After all, if Iran could down a drone and gain  access to U.S. technology, how much more can be given away in a photograph?

Yet instead, we had a leaked story from the New York Times that the pause in drone strikes was allowing al Qaeda and Pakistani militants to regroup.  (Note to the U.S. administration – rightly or wrongly, a leaked story in the NYT is seen in Pakistan as a statement of policy so it would be far better to come out and say it yourself.) And sure enough, just days after that story, the United States resumed drone attacks.

The big problem with this lack of transparency is that it has become almost impossible to discuss the merits of drone strikes rationally. That has been lethal to the U.S.-Pakistan relationship; it is damaging to the U.S. image in the world as a whole; and it is also distorting Pakistan’s current struggle for power between the civilian government and the military.

TALKING TO THE TALIBAN:AN ELUSIVE PEACE IN AFGHANISTAN

It is the season for “progress” on Taliban talks. In January 2010, the London conference on Afghanistan put the idea of negotiating with the Taliban firmly on the international agenda. In February 2011, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in a major policy speech, insisted it was time the United States began to talk to its enemies. Her speech was accompanied by a leaked report that Washington was in factalready holding direct talks with the Taliban to try to convince them to join a political settlement and sever ties with al Qaeda. And now we have the Taliban agreeing to open a liaison office in Qatar to help speed along the talks process as Washington prepares to withdraw most combat troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

But what are we actually looking at here? A quick-fix settlement that could provide just about enough cover for war-weary western governments to pull their troops out before Afghanistan descends again into civil war? Or a serious process which might offer an enduring peace? Do we believe the Taliban are now more amenable to talks than they were before? Or rather that domestic political compulsions in the United States are driving it more rapidly towards the exit? 

Let’s be clear. The idea the Taliban would be willing to negotiate some kind of power-sharing deal, and that talks could be helped by measures like the release of prisoners, has been around for a couple of years, if not longer.  Moreover, a lasting settlement would require not just a deal with the Afghan Taliban led by Mullah Mohammed Omar, but also reconciliation among all the different actors inside Afghanistan as well as deep-rooted governance reform. It would  need intensive regional diplomacy to prevent the country’s neighbours from undermining any settlement — whether this be driven byPakistan’s unhappiness with Indian involvement in Afghanistan, or the temptation for Iran to queer the pitch as its row with the west over its nuclear programme worsens.

Arguably the chances of reaching a lasting settlement  are less now than they were before the United States sent extra troops to Afghanistan in 2010 aiming to decisively turn the tide and force the Taliban to the negotiating table from a position of strength.  Since then, the military campaign has splintered the Taliban, making it harder for its Pakistan-based leadership to bring younger and more radicalised fighters  into an overall settlement.  The souring of ties between the United States and Pakistan over 2011 – particularly after the killing of bin Laden on May 2 - and the deteriorating political environment inside Pakistan itself,  all argue against the chances of making a real and enduring peace process work.

In that context, a new book due out this month on the relationship between the Taliban and al Qaeda by Kandahar-based researchers Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn could hardly be better timed. “An Enemy We Created, The Myth of the Taliban/Al Qaeda Merger in Afghanistan, 1970-2010” should be compulsory reading for anyone trying to separate reality from political spin. It is also an essential guide to what might yet be achieved through talks, and what might have been achieved had serious talks been held earlier.

The authors, who edited the memoirs of former Taliban ambassador to Pakistan Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, examine in detail the failure of attempts to convince Afghanistan’s then Taliban rulers to expel Osama bin Laden in the years before the Sept. 11 2001 attacks.  That these attempts were not inevitably  doomed to fail is underlined by their assertion that the relationship between the younger and less experienced Afghan Taliban and the Arabs in al Qaeda was considerably less close than was commonly assumed (an argument also made by other scholars.) 

However, they argue that Washington’s single-minded focus on bin Laden jarred with the Taliban’s often conflicted views - where international pressure to expel al Qaeda competed with their own domestic insecurities as well as concerns about how such a move would be viewed by Muslims outside Afghanistan,  particularly in the Arab world . Even after the Sept. 11 attacks, the authors argue that an outcome other than war might have been possible. “A different development of the conflict is imaginable. Neither the United States nor the Taliban displayed the political will or insight to make it happen.”

It is the season for “progress” on Taliban talks. In January 2010, the London conference on Afghanistan put the idea of negotiating with the Taliban firmly on the international agenda. In February 2011, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton,in a major policy speech, insisted it was time the United States began to talk to its enemies. Her speech was accompanied by a leaked report that Washington was in fact already holding direct talks with the Taliban to try to convince them to join a political settlement and sever ties with al Qaeda. And now we have the Taliban agreeing to open a liaison office in Qatar to help speed along the talks process as Washington prepares to withdraw most combat troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

But what are we actually looking at here? A quick-fix settlement that could provide just about enough cover for war-weary western governments to pull their troops out before Afghanistan descends again into civil war? Or a serious process which might offer an enduring peace? Do we believe the Taliban are now more amenable to talks than they were before? Or rather that domestic political compulsions in the United States are driving it more rapidly towards the exit? 

Let’s be clear. The idea the Taliban would be willing to negotiate some kind of power-sharing deal, and that talks could be helped by measures like the release of prisoners, has been around for a couple of years, if not longer.  Moreover, a lasting settlement would require not just a deal with the Afghan Taliban led by Mullah Mohammed Omar, but also reconciliation among all the different actors inside Afghanistan as well as deep-rooted governance reform. It would  need intensive regional diplomacy to prevent the country’s neighbours from undermining any settlement — whether this be driven by Pakistan’s unhappiness with Indian involvement in Afghanistan, or the temptation for Iran to queer the pitch as its row with the west over its nuclear programme worsens.

Arguably the chances of reaching a lasting settlement  are less now than they were before the United States sent extra troops to Afghanistan in 2010 aiming to decisively turn the tide and force the Taliban to the negotiating table from a position of strength.  Since then, the military campaignhas splintered the Taliban, making it harder for its Pakistan-based leadership to bring younger and more radicalised fighters  into an overall settlement.  The souring of ties between the United States and Pakistan over 2011 – particularly after the killing of bin Laden on May 2 - and the deteriorating political environment inside Pakistan itself,  all argue against the chances of making a real and enduring peace process work.

In that context, a new book due out this month on the relationship between the Taliban and al Qaeda by Kandahar-based researchers Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn could hardly be better timed. “An Enemy We Created, The Myth of the Taliban/Al Qaeda Merger in Afghanistan, 1970-2010” should be compulsory reading for anyone trying to separate reality from political spin. It is also an essential guide to what might yet be achieved through talks, and what might have been achieved had serious talks been held earlier.

The authors, who edited the memoirs of former Taliban ambassador to Pakistan Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, examine in detail the failure of attempts to convince Afghanistan’s then Taliban rulers to expel Osama bin Laden in the years before the Sept. 11 2001 attacks.  That these attempts were not inevitably  doomed to fail is underlined by their assertion that the relationship between the younger and less experienced Afghan Taliban and the Arabs in al Qaeda was considerably less close than was commonly assumed (an argument also made by other scholars.) 

However, they argue that Washington’s single-minded focus on bin Laden jarred with the Taliban’s often conflicted views - where international pressure to expel al Qaeda competed with their own domestic insecurities as well as concerns about how such a move would be viewed by Muslims outside Afghanistan,  particularly in the Arab world . Even after the Sept. 11 attacks, the authors argue that an outcome other than war might have been possible. “A different development of the conflict is imaginable. Neither the United States nor the Taliban displayed the political will or insight to make it happen.”

While this assertion will no doubt be fiercely disputed by historians for years to come, what is relevant to today is that the two sides did not know how to talk to each other.  While the United States was in a hurry – just as it is now keen to bring a quick end to the Afghan war – the Taliban dithered, worried about their position inside Afghanistan. While the United States focused on international terrorism and the threat to its own people, the Taliban filtered its views through the prism of Islam.  Even today, it is hard to see how two such different entities – one a superpower, the other a relatively new and fragmented  movement – can talk to each other directly without an outside mediator, and a great deal of time and patience.

As for the present situation in Afghanistan, the authors argue that a settlement incorporating much of the Taliban movement is becoming harder and harder as the U.S.-led military campaign separates the leadership from new and younger fighters in the field. ”There are still possible interlocutors and options for discussions at the moment, but the veteran Taliban’s leverage over the chain of command is becoming increasingly limited, to a degree that significantly hampers their influence over all parts of the movement currently fighting, rendering the chance of forging a lasting peace more and more unlikely.”

Indeed, while the authors assert that “the supposedly unbreakable link” between the Taliban and al Qaeda was “the principal strategic blunder of the war”, they argue that younger fighters, with no memory of peace in Afghanistan, are now in fact more likely to be drawn towards al Qaeda and other militant groups.

“The new and younger generation of Afghan Taliban are more susceptible to approaches by foreign jihadist groups, including al Qaeda, causing an increasingly ideological shift in the conflict. This development, paired with an overall increase in suspicion among the Afghan population as to the United States and its ‘real intentions’, bodes ill for the future. Current policies … are a key factor driving the Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda together…”

None of that is to suggest that talks are pointless, nor that they should not have been started in earnest much earlier.  But it does indicate that it will be incredibly difficult to reach a lasting peace agreement - and bear in mind, the more talk there is of a settlement with the Taliban, the greater is the incentive for their rivals and enemies to prepare for civil war, or for spoilers to try to sabotage the process. (To be fair, the United States and its allies have also been preparing for a situation in which there is no settlement by the end of 2014.)

And in the interests of keeping everyone honest, we should look out for any widening discrepancy between the U.S. domestic political need for a “quick fix” way out of Afghanistan, and the realities on the ground.

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“An Enemy We Created” is due to be released on January 18.

And among many good reports on a political settlement on Afghanistan, do also read this overall examination by the Afghan Analysts Network;  and from earlier last year, this report by The Century Foundation (pdf). For a more micro level look at the kind of compromises which might need to be made, read this report by Antonio Giustozzi and Claudio Franco about how the Taliban have been allowing schools to operate in areas under their influence in return for the introduction of a more conservative curriculum.

(Reuters photo by Ahmad Masood)

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