Pakistan poses US policy headache

Pakistan poses US policy headache (NSI News Source Info) September 3, 2008: Pakistan's border regions are a haven for militantsThe foreign-policy challenges are coming thick and fast for America's presidential hopefuls these days - providing a sharp reminder to us all that the new man in the White House will find himself handling pressing issues in some of the world's most dangerous and unpredictable trouble spots. First came the crisis over South Ossetia which challenged both John McCain and Barack Obama to explain how they would balance the Westernising ambitions of former communist states like Georgia against the hard reality that a resurgent Russia remains at least a regional super-power. Now there is the resignation of Pervez Musharraf - the Pakistani military strongman who ignored the differences of opinion within his turbulent Muslim country and declared it to be an ally of the United States in the "war on terror". The threat of a new Cold War with the Russians has been making headlines around the world, but the upheaval in Islamabad is potentially even more destabilising. Washington's approval Something in the Musharraf approach clearly struck a chord with George W Bush - at a practical level it would have been almost impossible for the US to conduct effective operations in Afghanistan without the co-operation of neighbouring Pakistan. Pakistan is probably the most difficult issue the next president will face... it is unclear who's on which side at any given time. American foreign policy analyst But the Pakistani leader's personal style dovetailed neatly with the Bush approach to politics too - both men liked the idea of following simple strategies based on big ideas, rather than troubling themselves with the detailed issues of day-to-day politics. On the face of it, that made Pervez Musharraf a familiar figure on the American political stage - the military strongman who while not himself a democrat, was nonetheless a keen supporter of the world's most powerful democracy and whose support was rewarded with American aid - around $10bn in this case. He is not the first such figure to alienate huge sections of his own population in pursuit of Washington's approval and friendship. Difficult issue The reason why Pakistan is so different - and so difficult - for the United States is because within its own institutions of power there are competing impulses about where the country's true interests lie. One American foreign policy analyst put it like this: "Pakistan is probably the most difficult issue the next president will face. It is both a victim of Jihadist terrorism - as with the assassination of Mrs Bhutto - and a sponsor and safe haven of Jihadist terrorism and it is unclear who's on which side at any given time." There are clear indications that elements within the Pakistani Intelligence Services (the ISI) support the resurgent Taleban - only last month the CIA presented Pakistan's government with evidence that its intelligence agents assisted a suicide bomb attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul. That has to be balanced against the fact that Pakistani agents have arrested hundreds of al-Qaeda suspects in recent years, including a number of key players who were handed on into US custody. Anti-Americanism It is a sobering thought for Americans that even under a pro-Western military strongman, Pakistan to some extent faced both ways in the "war on terror". Under a democratically-elected coalition government, the country might become an even more complex and ambiguous partner. President Bush rewarded Pervez Musharraf's support with $10bn aid. President Bush was quick to stress the importance to America of working with the new Pakistani leadership, but the challenge for the next president is to persuade the new regime in Islamabad to remain focussed on the "war on terror". The American hope is that a democratically-elected government will be a more natural partner than a military dictatorship, but it is far from certain that things will work out that way. In the fractious and sometimes dangerous world of Pakistani politics, the coalition may well find itself pre-occupied with its own survival. And it will have to be mindful of a strong streak of anti-Americanism in Pakistan which is not entirely confined to Islamic fundamentalists. Pakistani-Afghan border So President Bush, and whoever follows him into the White House, will need to be subtle and determined if they are to keep the new Pakistan somehow involved in the America-led alliance which fights the "war on terror". Washington has poured aid into Pakistan in recent years - and picks up the bills for keeping the Pakistani Army deployed in the tribal areas around the country's border with Afghanistan - but there have been signs lately that the Americans do not believe they are getting good value out of this proxy war. Many Pakistanis in turn resent the idea that their army is being paid to operate on behalf of the United States. That is just one complicating factor in an area which will become more important if a future President Obama or President McCain makes good their stated intentions to step up American deployment in Afghanistan and raise the profile of the US campaign there. It will be difficult for America to step up operations in Afghanistan without being sure that the Pakistani-Afghan border is secure - and that will only happen if US relations with both the Pakistani military and the new civilian government are good. The presidential hopefuls will find themselves tested with questions about all sorts of trouble spots around the world in the next few months - none is more important than this.