Tuesday, January 27, 2009

How Obama Should Respond To China’s Growing Military Might

How Obama Should Respond To China’s Growing Military Might Author: Jonathan Holslag is Head of research at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies (BICCS) (NSI News Source Info) January 27, 2009: China’s new Defence White Paper confronts the fresh administration in Washington with an important strategic dilemma. It will have to choose between backing Taiwan as a regional military balancer against China, and working with China as a partner in global security affairs.In this Jan. 12, 2009 file photo, Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers parade during training at a military base in Xuchang city, central China's Henan province. China said Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2009, that its overall security situation had improved over the past year, although it remained alert to separatism in Tibet and Xinjiang and firmly opposed to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. The second option is America’s best pick. But while showing restraint on Taiwan, it should pursue an inclusive balancing strategy that takes the interests of Asia’s other powers into account. The 2008 Defence White Paper, issued earlier this week, reiterates China’s ambition to flex its military muscle globally. China’s growing economic interests abroad have rendered it vulnerable to a wide range of security threats. Terrorists in Pakistan, pirates in the Indian Ocean, and rebels in Africa are raising the costs. In the past few years dozens of Chinese workers have been killed in violent incidents abroad. Vital economic lifelines are endangered, and Beijing knows that it should no longer count on an overstretched superpower to protect them. The free ride is over. It doesn’t come as a surprise that the paper highlights the capability to deploy warships in “distant waters” or to engage its Air Force in long-range “strategic projection operations.” The recent decision to dispatch three vessels in the Gulf of Aden was an important milestone. Also in the coming years, China will continue to modernise its armed forces in order to take over a part of America’s role as defender of global goods. For the US, this forms an opportunity rather than a threat. The combat against terrorism, stability in Africa, the build-up of Afghanistan, maritime security … these shared interests are strong enough to bend China’s security ambitions into joint efforts. Both China and the US have showed their willingness to explore such synergy. The Pentagon invited the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to observe its Cobra Gold exercises in Southeast Asia. It even encouraged China to participate to the UN-backed patrolling in the Gulf of Aden. The Chinese Ministry of Defence confirmed its interest in more international cooperation during last year’s Strategic Dialogue Meeting in Beijing.Yet, Beijing feels uncomfortable with America reaching out one hand, while supporting its archenemy with the other. As long as Washington continues to support Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier, it shouldn’t expect that Beijing is going to turn its military go-global strategy into a cooperative one. Obama’s team should therefore continue Defence Secretary Gates’ policy of restraint, and give a clear signal to Beijing that it will not supply major arms systems to Taiwan as long as long as relations across the Straits continue to improve. At the same time, Washington needs to be sensitive to concerns of countries like Australia, Japan and India. They might see closer cooperation with China at the expense of their strategic interests. Inclusive balancing is the way out. Engaging Asia should not be a choice between with or against China. Washington needs to engage all four regional powers simultaneously. At the tactical level, Washington could propose a joint searchand- rescue operation with China, Australia, India, and Japan in the Pacific Ocean, as well as annually rotating manoeuvres on land, and closer cooperation in the framework of – guess who’s missing here - UN Peacekeeping Operations. An A-5 annual summit, preferably in the framework of the Asian Regional Forum (ARF), should boost coordination at the strategic level.Sustained US leadership in Asia requires converting aspirations into cooperation, while at the same time maintaining the checks-and-balances between the regional powers.

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