The Market for Main Battle Tanks: China Leads With Type 98, For State-Of-The-Art Grade One German Leads With Leopard 2 - Annual Analysis By Forecast

The Market for Main Battle Tanks: China Leads With Type 98, For State-Of-The-Art Grade One German Leads With Leopard 2 - Annual Analysis By Forecast International

(NSI News Source Info) March 7, 2009: In its annual analysis "The Market for Tanks," the Forecast International Weapons Group projects that the international market will produce over 6,500 main battle tanks, worth in excess of $26.76 billion, through 2018. However, while increased modernization and retrofit remains transparent to FI's analysis of new-production tanks, this factor remains a significant component of the international market. The Leopard 2 is a German main battle tank developed by Krauss-Maffei in the early 1970s and first entering service in 1979. The Leopard 2 replaced the earlier Leopard 1 as the main battle tank of the German Army. Various versions have served in the armed forces of Germany and twelve other European countries, as well as several non-European nations. More than 3,480 Leopard 2s have been manufactured. The Leopard 2 first saw combat in Afghanistan with the Danish and Canadian ISAF forces.

The first export customer were The Netherlands which received 445 vehicles between July 1981 and July 1986. The Netherlands later resold 114 of these (and one turret) to Austria, 80 to Canada in 2007, another 52 tanks to Norway and finally 37 to Portugal. Sweden also acquired 280 Leopards, 160 2A4s from German stocks, designated Stridsvagn 121, and the rest Leopard 2(S) models (designated Stridsvagn 122) similar in configuration to the Leopard 2A5 variant. Spain first leased and later bought 108 2A4 models in the interim period before 219 license-built Leopard 2A6 models (Leopardo 2E) were ready to replace them. Switzerland bought 380 between 1987 and 1993. A number of countries also use versions of the tank, including Poland, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Turkey and Chile. Germany has fielded about 2125 Leopard 2s in various versions. The design was also tested by Britain in the 1980s, which ultimately decided on the Challenger 2. The Australian Army evaluated ex-German Leopard 2s as a replacement for its Leopard 1 tanks in 2003 but instead selected the M1A1 Abrams. Dean Lockwood, weapons systems analyst at Forecast International, notes that "in 2008, U.S. Department of Defense contract awards for the maintenance, RESET, and upgrade of the existing M1 Abrams inventories carried a total value in excess of $1.46 billion. That was equivalent to more than 46 percent of the total value of all new-production main battle tanks entering the international market in 2008 (nearly $3.17 billion). Last year, the Chinese Type 98 program maintained its position as the single largest new-production program. Yet, with a total value of $395.79 million (for 116 new-production tanks), the Type 98 program was worth only about 27.11 percent what the U.S. DoD spent on the M1 Abrams in 2008." The expense associated with the modernization and retrofit of high-end main battle tanks pales in comparison with the prospect of new tank procurement. Thus, FI expects new production of high-end tanks to remain relatively low, accounting for 14.9 percent of all production and 24.22 percent of the value of the market during the forecast period. In terms of sheer numbers, Forecast International expects Pakistan's Al Khalid, the Type 98 of the People's Republic of China, and the Russian Federation's T-90 (including India's licensed T-90S production program) to continue to dominate the market, representing 60.57 percent of all new tanks rolling out worldwide, and accounting for 52.28 percent of the value of the market, through 2018. In the international market for main battle tanks, the days of U.S. and European domination over new production are long gone. Nevertheless, the established U.S. and European players continue to make their presence felt. The 120mm Rh 120 smoothbore ordnance, the state-of-the-art Leopard 2, and the combat-proven M1 Abrams continue to set the standard for main battle tank design worldwide. Second only to the infantryman in terms of combat effectiveness, the "mailed fist" of heavy armor remains the arm of decision on the modern battlefield. Further, as Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003-present) evolved from a war of movement into a security operation, the main battle tank has proven surprisingly adaptable. According to Lockwood, "In the congested streets of Iraqi cities, the Abrams serves as a significant force multiplier, fully up to meeting the challenges of an asymmetric warfare environment."