(NSI News Source Info) PARIS, France - September 18, 2009: Airlines, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, will buy a lot of big airplanes in the next two decades, Airbus said Thursday.
Airbus, which ha
s pinned its hopes largely on the double-decker A380, said in its latest Global Market Forecast that airlines would need larger aircraft in all size categories to help ease congestion, accommodate growth on existing routes and do more with less.
"Air traffic growth, increased frequencies, cost reduction, environmental responsibilities and airport congestion are increasingly influencing airlines to capitalize on the benefits of larger aircraft," Airbus wrote.
s pinned its hopes largely on the double-decker A380, said in its latest Global Market Forecast that airlines would need larger aircraft in all size categories to help ease congestion, accommodate growth on existing routes and do more with less.
"Air traffic growth, increased frequencies, cost reduction, environmental responsibilities and airport congestion are increasingly influencing airlines to capitalize on the benefits of larger aircraft," Airbus wrote. "In the last 10 years aircraft have increased in size by three percent and Airbus predicts that by 2028, the average aircraft will be 26 percent bigger than today."
Airbus foresees demand over the next 20 years for more than 1,700 Very Large Aircraft -- those seating more than 400 passengers -- valued at $571 billion. It said airlines in the Asia Pacific region would operate more than half of the world's Very Large Aircraft by 2028.
Overall, aircraft makers will deliver 24,097 new 100-plus-seat passenger planes, valued at $2.9 trillion, in the next two decades, Airbus said. It said another 6,078 regional jets Airbus would be delivered.
"Air transportation is a growth industry, and an essential ingredient in the world economy," John Leahy, Airbus' chief operating officer, customers, said in a news release accompanying the report. "Technology and innovation are key drivers for an eco-efficient aviation sector, and Airbus is at the forefront of both."
In it's latest forecast, released earlier this month, Boeing predicted Airlines would buy 26,900 passenger planes (not counting regional jets), making it slightly more optimistic than Airbus.
Airbus' forecast pinned the new demand on emerging economies, evolving airline networks, expansion of low-cost carriers, the increasing number of mega-cities, traffic growth and replacement of older, less-efficient aircraft.
Replacement of about 10,000 older passenger aircraft will double the world's fleet of aircraft with at least 100 seats, from about 14,000 today.
Airbus sees the greatest demand for passenger aircraft -- 31 percent of total demand -- coming from airlines in Asia-Pacific and emerging markets, such as China and India. Boeing also said the Asia Pacific region would lead airplane demand.
Airbus also said 2009's 2-percent decline in revenue passenger kilometers should be followed by a rise of 4.6 percent next year, then continue to increase by 4.7 percent per year, doubling in the next 15 years.
Finally, it said airfreight tonne kilometers should rise by 5.2 percent a year, with the increased demand and fleet renewal creating demand for about 3,440 freighters, 850 of these would be new aircraft and the rest converted passenger planes.
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