DTN News: Chinese Trade Improves World Economy

DTN News: Chinese Trade Improves World Economy *Source: DTN News / Int'l Media (NSI News Source Info) HONG KONG - October 14, 2009: The official trade figures for China in September have suggested there may be an upturn in economic activity for the rest of the world. Exports from the world's third largest economy fell to $115.9 billion, which was down 15.2% from September 2008. The figure has confirmed the smallest fall in nine months. Imports fell 3.5% to $103 billion, which is the smallest decline since imports began to slide in November 2008. Economists have put the improvements down to China's $596 billion stimulus package. A global recovery is now needed to boost Chinese trade. China reported surprisingly strong trade figures on Wednesday, providing fresh evidence that the world's third-largest economy is firmly on a recovery track and that global demand is improving too. Exports in September fell 15.2 percent from a year earlier, beating forecasts of a 21 percent fall, while imports fell just 3.5 percent -- well short of expectations of a 15.3 percent decline, the General Administration of Customs said. Brian Jackson, an economist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, said the slower pace of decline was good news for China's recovery because growth this year has depended too much on the government's 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package. Indeed, after adjustments to take account of the number of working days in each month, exports rose 6.3 percent in September from August and imports rose 8.3 percent, Customs said. "Stronger external demand will provide an alternative source of support for growth and provide scope for Beijing to start tightening policy gradually from early 2010," Jackson said. With imports showing strength, China's trade surplus fell to $12.9 billion last month from $15.7 billion in August. Markets had expected a figure of $17.0 billion. Economists expect the year-on-year readings in exports to keep improving. Trade slumped after a shock to confidence from the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008, creating an increasingly favorable statistical base of comparison as 2009 wears on. Nomura said it expected the year-on-year change in exports to turn positive by December. Barclays Capital said it could be as early as November. "Overall, export performance will be much better in the months to come. I think it's going to be sustainable and it's going to accelerate. There are some rush orders coming to China for Christmas, so I expect probably a pretty strong rebound in November and December," said Dong Tao, chief China economist for Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. China Related Headlines News....for full stories click on the links below ~ Security summit ends in China with little to show Reuters via Yahoo! News - Wed Oct 14, 4:30 am ET ~ India warns China over Kashmir AFP via Yahoo! News - 39 minutes ago ~ Last of China's first Communist generals dies AP via Yahoo! News - Wed Oct 14, 2:48 am ET ~ Hang Seng Investment’s Ho Sees China, Hong Kong Stocks Gaining Bloomberg - Wed Oct 14, 2:13 am ET ~ China's trade slump eases in September AP via Yahoo! News - 1 hour 26 minutes ago ~ Strong China trade, loan figures back recovery case Washington Post - 1 hour 53 minutes ago ~ Transfer to China of dissident unlawful: Hong Kong lawmaker AFP via Yahoo! News - Mon Oct 12, 2:06 pm ET ~ Strong China trade figures point to recovery Reuters via Yahoo! News - Wed Oct 14, 3:37 am ET ~ China and Russia sign missile notification pact Reuters via Yahoo! News - Tue Oct 13, 9:22 pm ET ~ GM aims to grow faster than China market in 2010 Reuters via Yahoo! News - 1 hour 12 minutes ago ~ Huge dinosaur find in China 'may include new species' AFP via Yahoo! News - 1 hour 3 minutes ago