(NSI News Source Info) WASHINGTON September 24, 2008: Pakistan and Afghanistan are discussing a possible joint force to combat militants on both sides of their border near Pakistan's tribal region, a senior Afghan official said on Monday.
Afghan Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak told reporters that such a force would include US troops and address soaring insurgent violence that he said has stretched the capabilities of US, Nato and Afghan forces inside Afghanistan.
“We should have a combined joint task force of coalition, Afghans and Pakistanis to be able to operate on the both sides of the border,” Wardak said at the Pentagon during a visit to Washington to discuss a Kabul plan to nearly double the size of the Afghan army.
Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he had not heard the details of Wardak's proposal but said any effort to improve security in the border area was welcome.
“I think anything that impacts better security on that border is a good thing,” he told reporters in Los Angeles.
“I am encouraged that a leader in Afghanistan has spoken out with this kind of idea,” he said. “As in all these things, the devil will be in the details.”
Wardak said the Afghan government had discussed the task force with Pakistani officials within the past several weeks.
“They say they're looking at it,” he said.
Speaking two days after a truck-bomb attack on Islamabad's Marriott hotel, Wardak said that given recent events in Pakistan, “everyone should realize we have a common threat, a common enemy and a common objective to achieve.”
He noted that insurgent violence in Afghanistan rose three-fold from 2005 to 2007 and said, “2008 is going to be the highest among all.”
Insurgency expansion
The core of the insurgency consists of 10,000 to 15,000 fighters in Afghanistan, he said, not including those who operated outside the country in areas such as Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas, on the Afghan border.
“Now I think they're operating geographically in more areas and more provinces than before, and I think they have stretched the capability of the combined forces of ISAF, the coalition and Afghans,” the defense minister said.
US commandos crossed the border into Pakistan on Sept. 3 to attack a suspected al Qaeda target.
“A terrorist does not recognize any boundaries,” Wardak said when asked about the raid. “We have to deal with the sanctuaries and the real hide-outs of the terrorists, wherever they are.”
Monday, September 22, 2008
INS Vikramaditya Hits Delay, Cost Increases
(NSI News Source Info) September 23, 2008: India’s troubled attempt to convert and field a full-size aircraft carrier – before time and wear force it to retire its existing naval aviation platforms.
On January 20, 2004 India and Russia signed a deal to refurbish and convert the 40,000t Soviet/Russian Admiral Gorshkov into a full carrier by removing the guns, anti-shipping and anti-air missile launchers on the front deck, replacing them with a full runway and ski jump, changing the boilers to diesel fuel, enlarging and strengthening the rear aircraft elevator, and many other modifications. The announced delivery date for INS Vikramaditya was August 2008 – an ambitious schedule, but one that would allow the carrier to enter service in 2009, around the time as their 29,000t light carrier/LHA INS Viraat (formerly HMS Hermes, last of the Centaur class) was scheduled to retire. The new ship will berth at the new Indian Navy facility in Karwar, on India’s west coast.
Initial reports of delays sparked controversy in India, but even the Ministry has now admitted their truth. The INS Viraat’s retirement is now set for 2010-2012 – but even that may not be late enough, as slow negotiations and steadily-lengthening delivery times will push delivery of the Gorshkov back to 2010 at the earliest. Reports of delivery in 2012 or later have surfaced, and the continued absence of a contract that Russia will honor is likely to create further delays. Even as the delivery date for India’s locally-built 37,500 ton escort carrier appears to be slipping well beyond 2013.
Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is that slipping timelines could easily leave India without a serviceable aircraft carrier. The other is the extent of the cost increases, especially if more increases are added once India has paid for most of the budgeted work and is deep into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that can’t even execute on commercial contracts, and an agreement in principle that has yet to be finalized into a contract. Meanwhile, Russia’s new naval fighters will have to deploy on land, because its only operational carriers is undergoing refits. That hasn’t stopped India from approving further MiG-29K purchases, however…
*Waiting for Gorshkov…
*Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
*INS Vikramaditya: Updates & Contracts [updated]
*Appendix A: Additional Readings – Equipment Profiles
*Appendix B: Additional Readings – Related Developments
Waiting for Gorshkov…
According to the 2004 press release, INS Vikramaditya was supposed to enter the Indian Navy in August 2008. That looks almost certain to fail, but India’s Ministry of Defence initially denied reports of delays. Then, in May 2007, Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta said the ships will be delivered:
”...by late 2008 or early 2009…. Our officials, who are stationed at the spot, have said that the work is going on as per schedule and we can have a month long delay once the work is completed as that part of Russia is frozen for a long time.”
Later comments on this issue included this May 1, 2007 quote:
“The work is only three to four months behind schedule and we can expect the aircraft carrier to be delivered by late 2008 or early 2009”
Subsequent updates, however, have proven the critics correct, with even the Ministry admitting as much. Cost estimates and reports concerning the Gorshkov’s final total vary from $700-$1.4 billion, of which $400-500 million has reportedly already been paid. DID’s experience with Indian defense procurement issues is that these figures mean little, beyond defining broad orders of magnitude. Transparency will eventually come, but deals with Russia mean that it will come only from pressure within India, and then only after all other alternatives have been exhausted. Reports until then are really a set of varyingly educated guesses.
That there is a real issue of both time and cost, however, can no longer be denied. February 2008 news reports are giving figures of up to 3-4 years before refurbishment and testing are complete, and the refurbished ship can join the fleet. This would place its in-service data at 2011-2012, which risks a gap with no serving carriers in the fleet if further delays occur or the INS Viraat retires slightly early.
Meanwhile, China is working hard to refurbish the 58,000t ex-Russian carrier Varyag, and some analysts believe the ship could be operational in a testing capacity by 2010.
Those sunk construction costs, Russian possession of the Gorshkov, the difficulty in finding a substitute carrier to replace the Gorshkov sooner than 2013, and the Chinese push with the Varyag, have all combined to give the Russians substantial leverage in their negotiations.
Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
Many of Gorshkov’s key modifications are aircraft-related, including the new arrester gear and ski jump. New boilers and wiring are the other major components. The timelines and cost figures for delivery of the ship do not include aircraft, however, which are contracted separately.
The original carrier’s complement was 12 Yak-38 Forger V/STOL fighters, 12 Ka-28 helicopters, and 2 Ka-31 airborne early warning helicopters. The removal of the Gorshkov’s forward missiles, ski ramp, and other modifications will improve the ship’s air complement somewhat. The nature of its original design, however, means that INS Vikramaditya will still fall short of comparably-sized western counterparts like the 43,000t FNS Charles de Gaulle nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, with its 40-plane complement that leans heavily to fighter jets.
Carriage ranges given for the refitted Vikramaditya seem to average 12-16 fighters and 4-16 of the compact Ka-28/31 helicopters; diagrams seem to suggest total stowage space for a “footprint” of no more than 15-16 MiG-29Ks, with each Kamov helicopter sporting a comparative footprint of about 0.4, and about 5-6 open footprint spots on deck.
A related $740 million contract for 16 MiG-29K aircraft plus training and maintenance was confirmed on December 22, 2004, with an option for another 30 MiG-29Ks by 2015. They would be operated in STOBAR (Short Take-Off via the ski ramp, But Assisted Recovery via arresting wires) mode, and the MiG-29K was reportedly selected over the larger and more-capable navalized SU-33 because India hopes to operate them from an indigenous smaller carrier as well.
The Gorshkov-Vikramaditya’s complement will also include Kamov Ka-31 AEW and/or Ka-28 multi-role helicopters, along with a complement of torpedo tubes, air defense missile systems, et. al. If India does indeed buy E-2C+/E-2D Hawkeye naval AWACS aircraft, as is currently rumored, they would be added to this mix and take up footprint slots of their own.
Updates & Contracts:
Sept 21/08: Still no firm deal on the Gorshkov refit, but India’s Defence Acquisition Committee (DAC) has given approval in principle to add another 29 MiG-29Ks to the original 16-plane, $1.5 billion deal.
No price negotiations have taken place, but the contract is expected to be worth close to $2 billion. The Navy is reported to have set its sights on a 3-squadron goal for its MiG-29K/KUB force. Indian Express report.
June 3/08: Press Trust of India reports that Russia’s Sevmash shipyard has promised readiness by 2012 – maybe. RIA Novosti quotes Sevmash officials as saying that:
“The successful solution of all the financial issues will enable the shipbuilders to sail the aircraft carrier out into the Barents Sea for trials. In the winter of 2012, the ship is expected to be finally refitted and trials will continue in the summer of that year… At the end of 2012, the aircraft carrier is expected to be fully prepared for its transfer to the Indian navy in accordance with the schedule approved by the Russian Navy.”
Negotiations and maneuvering around the contract’s final details continue, and Sevmash’s history of delivery, detailed below, must also be considered when evaluating such statements.
June 2/08: Defense News reports that India’s MiG-29Ks will be based on land, because the country has no operational carriers. With INS Viraat unavailable due to upgrades and Vikramaditya badly behind schedule, the MiG-29Ks will go to the Naval Aviation Centre at INS Hansa in Goa instead. Hansa is the based used to train naval pilots. Deliveries of all 16 MiG-29Ks are expected to be complete by 2009.
May 30/08: Reuters reports that American Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was asked about rumours that the USS Kitty Hawk might be sold to India at the at the Shangri-La Dialogue forum of regional analysts, defense and security officials. “I am aware of no such plans,” Gates replied.
May 9/08: News Post India’s “Indian Navy To Order Another Aircraft Carrier” claims that the Indian Navy will supplement the Vikramaditya with 2 of its 37,500t indigenous “Air Defence Ship” carriers, instead of just one. The article also includes additional information about the Vikramaditya’s schedule and the potential risks.
April 9/08: Despite an agreement that was supposed to be finalized in March, Indian Defence Secretary Vijay Singh describes the parties as still “locked in intense negotiations over the price details,” adding that “technical assessment of the work needed on the carrier is still on…” The expected responses re: the deal being on track, and having a final price proposal to bring to the Cabinet “soon,” were also voiced. Zee News.
March 10/08: The Indian government’s DDI News reports that “India has reconciled to a price hike for procurement of Russian carrier Admiral Gorshkov and the government has constituted an experts committee to work out the increase.”
Naval Chief Sureesh Mehta, who had opposed additional payments under the contract, said that: “There will be some price hike. We need to pay extra amount and whatever amount is due as per contracts we will pay.” This does not sound like an encouraging report from ongoing negotiations.
March 3/08: India opts to pay Russia more, in hopes of getting the Gorshkov ready in time. Figures given vary between $500 million and $1.2 billion; exactly how much more India will agree to pay will be decided later in March 2008, after 2 more rounds of negotiations. India’s Defence Secretary Vijay Singh is quoted as saying that:
“It should be completed by mid-2010. After that, it will undergo 18 months of extensive sea trials by the Russian navy to ensure all systems are working properly.”
Retired Admiral Arun Prakash was head of the Indian Navy in 2004 when the original deal was “laboriously and painstakingly negotiated for 11 months, and the contract sealed and signed.” He told BusinessWeek that he is disappointed by Russia “reneging on the deal” and says Russia “gifted” the Gorshkov to India in exchange for a $1.5 billion contract to buy planes and helicopters and “revive their terminally ill shipbuilding and aircraft manufacturing industries.”
India will also reportedly send 500 shipyard workers, technicians and managers to Russia, to take direct charge of the work, cover Russia’s labor shortage, and keep an eye on quality control so that it’s caught immediately. Whether this will suffice, in the wake of Sevmash shipyard disasters like the Odfjell contract (q.v. Feb 21/08), remains to be seen.
What also remains to be seen is whether India’s MiG-29K contract becomes the next bottleneck. India remains the only customer for this substantially different aircraft, and MiG will need to make production line changes that the existing contract may not adequately finance. Indian MoD.
France To Beef up Afghanistan Mission
Production VH-71 Makes First Flight

The B-3 Looks Like The B-2
Pakistan May Participate In Red Flag Exercise
Patrol Aircraft Spot Drug Runner Semi-Sub
Indo-US air force transport exercise at Agra next year
Lockheed Martin’s Joint Air-To-Surface Standoff Missile Successful in Latest Flight Test
NKorea preparing to restart nuclear reactor: official
(NSI News Source Info) Panmunjom, Korea (AFP) September 22, 2008: North Korea, accusing Washington of breaking a nuclear disarmament deal, said Friday it is working to restart its atomic reactor and no longer wants US concessions promised under the pact.
"We are making thorough preparations to restore (nuclear facilities)," said foreign ministry official Hyon Hak-Bong.
"You may say we have already started work to restore them to their original status," he told reporters at the border truce village of Panmunjom before the start of talks between the two Koreas on energy aid.
The US State Department confirmed North Korea was moving "closer and closer" to restarting the plutonium-producing plant, and urged the regime to pull back.
"They haven't got to that point yet (of restarting) and we would urge them not to get to that point," department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters.
"They have a choice. They can go down the pathway of having different and better relationship with the world... or they can keep themselves isolated, move the process backward. So we'll see," McCormack said in Washington in reaction to the comments.
The foreign ministry in Pyongyang said separately that work has been under way "since some time ago" to restore the reactor in response to the US failure to drop the North from a terrorism blacklist.
"Now that the US true colours are brought to light, the DPRK (North Korea) neither wishes to be delisted as a 'state sponsor of terrorism' nor expects such a thing to happen," a ministry spokesman told the official news agency.
"It will go its own way."
The energy talks went ahead Friday despite the deadlock in a six-nation aid-for-disarmament deal, which appeared to be making progress this summer.
The hardline communist state, which tested an atomic weapon in October 2006, began disabling its ageing reactor and other plants at Yongbyon last November under the pact with South Korea, the US, Japan, China and Russia.
But it announced last month it had halted work in protest at Washington's refusal to drop it from the blacklist, as promised under the deal.
Washington says the North must first accept strict outside verification of a nuclear inventory which Pyongyang handed over in June.
Foreign ministry official Hyon said such demands for what he called "forceful inspections" are not part of the six-party deal.
Similar demands for a "robber-like inspection method" led to war in Iraq, he said in opening remarks at the Panmunjom talks, adding that the US wants "to go anywhere at any time to collect samples and carry out examinations with measuring equipment."
Hyon said the North had "perfectly and flawlessly" completed 90 percent of disablement work including the extraction of 4,740 spent fuel rods.
In return for disablement, negotiating partners promised the impoverished state one million tons of heavy fuel oil or equivalent energy aid.
Nearly half has so far been delivered and Hwang Joon-Kook, chief of the South Korean delegation, said the rest would be sent.
"We also want to make sure that the six-party process does not go backward," Hwang said in his own opening remarks.
In Seoul, Foreign Minister Yu Myung-Hwan said it is unclear whether the North intends to turn the nuclear clock back "or whether it is another bargaining move."
A senior South Korean foreign ministry official said Friday's talks reached no agreement and the two sides failed to set a date for the next meeting.
He said Seoul's delegation urged the North to take part in talks on verification methods. "We told them that there will be a problem in (delivering) energy aid if disablement is not done."
In London, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Thursday the North could put its nuclear programme back on track in less than a year.
Uncertainty over the health of leader Kim Jong-Il means its nuclear stalemate with Washington is likely to continue, it added.
Kim, 66, failed to appear at a September 9 anniversary parade. South Korean officials said he underwent brain surgery following a stroke but is recovering well.
Hyon rejected the reports about Kim's health as malicious.
"That's sophism by evil people wanting to break up unity between the two Koreas," he said.
Venezuela To Buy Chinese Combat Planes: Chavez
Venezuela To Buy Chinese Combat Planes: Chavez
(NSI News Source Info) CARACAS (AFP) - September 22, 2008: Venezuela will buy combat and training aircraft from China this week, leftist Venezuela President Hugo
Chavez confirmed in a television broadcast Sunday.
The purchases will be made as part of a six-country tour, Chavez said in his broadcast of the "Alo President" television program from the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, hours before leaving on a "strategic interest" trip to Cuba, China, Russia, Belarus, France and Portugal.
Chavez, a staunch foe of the US government, confirmed that during his stay in Beijing he will purchase 24 K-8 aircraft "to train fighter pilots." The planes could be part of Venezuela's air force by next year.
The president also confirmed that while in Beijing he will arrange the construction of tanker vessels in Chinese shipyards, with the aim of installing a shipyard in Venezuela in the near future.
These plans come in addition to the construction of a refinery in China to process oil from Venezuela, and plans to create a bi-national company to install a refinery in the remote oil-rich Orinoco region in eastern Venezuela.
Caracas provides 500,000 barrels of oil per day to Beijing, a trade which is expected to increase to one million barrels a day by 2012.
Chavez, who describes China as a strategic ally, will move forward with a six billion dollar bilateral investment fund. China will contribute four billion dollars to the fund, and Venezuela two billion dollars.
Caracas will use the fund for "socialist productive projects."
"Before we had to go to Washington to beg for money. Not now. Now we negotiate with the Chinese," said Chavez.
Chavez announced that during his visit to Beijing the investment fund will benefit from an additional four billion dollars for further "development" in Venezuela.
After China, Chavez will head to Moscow.
Venezuela in recent years has been broadening its military ties to Moscow, and Chavez backed Russia in the recent Georgian conflict.
Last week, Russian supersonic Tu-160 bombers for the first time flew training runs with Venezuela in an area of the Caribbean traditionally considered the US military's sphere of influence.
Chavez's trip is expected to last until September 27.

Russian strategic bombers to join military drills with Belarus
Russian warships head to the Atlantic, Caribbean
The Grenades Of Iraq
India And Israel Work Together Against Terrorism
Somalia: Chaos Continues Without End In Sight
The Russian Connection With Hamas & Hezbollah
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