*Global markets jump as Angela Merkel tells election victor Antonis Samaras she is confident Greece will abide by bailout pledges, and world leaders gather in Mexico for the G20.
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources The Globe & Mail(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - June 18, 2012: Asian stock markets were up sharply Monday after elections in Greece eased fears of global financial turmoil, but analysts warned that the economic crisis shaking the 17 nations that use the euro was far from over. Stock markets rejoiced at the narrow victory by Greek conservatives who favour upholding an austerity program that their recession-mired country entered into in exchange for a financial bailout from international lenders.
Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index was up 1.9 per cent at 8,731.57. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6 per cent to 19,548.83. Australia’s S&P/ASX200 added 1.8 per cent to 4,129.20 and South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.1 per cent at 1,897.62.
On Wall Street, Dow Jones industrial average futures were up 62 points on Sunday night, suggesting the market could open higher Monday. The euro rose to $1.2700 (U.S.) from $1.2637 late Friday in New York. The U.S. dollar rose to 79.22 yen from 78.71 yen.
The New Zealand and Australian dollars were also higher. Both currencies typically rise when investors have more appetite for risk. The Australian dollar was trading above $1.01 and the New Zealand dollar was trading above 79 cents.
Masahiro Yamaguchi, a manager at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo, said the perk in Tokyo stocks came from a sense of relief that the worst had been avoided in Greece.
“There’s is a rebound simply because the risks are now reduced,” he said. “There’s a sense that, at least, things are okay for now. The solution is far from basic.”
On Sunday, pro-bailout parties in Greece won enough seats to form a coalition government.
Greece has been dependent on rescue loans to operate since May 2010, after it was shut out of international markets following years of profligate spending and falsifying financial data.
The country is mired in a fifth year of recession, with unemployment spiralling above 22 per cent and tens of thousands of businesses shutting down.
Greece had to agree to austerity measures to get its bailout. Measures included deep spending cuts on everything from health care to education and infrastructure as well as tax hikes and cuts in salaries and pensions. Anger at the measures has sent Greeks into the streets in frequent strikes and protests, some of them violent.
Some analysts said the election results could overstate the willingness of Greeks to embrace austerity.
“Overall, the Greek election result, while welcome, does not imply that the Greek people are embracing the tough reforms tied to the bailout package. It merely meant that fear overruled anger,” analysts at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore wrote in a market commentary.
No one is sure how bad a Greek exit from the euro would have been. Greece would almost have certainly defaulted on its debt, triggering losses for European banks that own its government bonds. The outcome of the election, however tenuous, gives Greece a chance to breathe life into its moribund economy.
“It will be tough, but Greece will survive because I think the tourist industry and the agriculture sector will help it recover from its dire straits right now,” said Francis Lun, managing director of Lyncean Holdings in Hong Kong.
Japanese vehicle makers soared on hopes that Europe, a huge export market, would avoid deepening economic turbulence. Mazda Motor Corp. jumped 4 per cent and Yamaha Motor Co. gained 4.5 per cent.
Steelmakers and shipyards also gained ground. South Korea’s top shipbuilder, Hyundai Heavy Industries, rose 3.1 per cent. Japan’s JFE Holdings Inc. added 4 per cent and Kobe Steel rose 3.3 per cent.
Samsonite International SA rebounded 5.8 per cent after it issued a statement saying its luggage is safe, following a Hong Kong Consumer Council report last week that found carcinogens in the handles of some models, which caused its shares to dive 16 per cent.
But stock market operator Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. fell 2.8 per cent as investors worried a $2.2-billion bid announced last week for the London Metal Exchange was too high.
Benchmark oil for July delivery was up 91 cents to $84.94 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 12 cents to end at $84.03 a barrel in New York on Friday.
DTN STOCK MARKET*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources The Globe & Mail
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Following is a summary of key political risks to watch:
* FISCAL DILEMMA
The government is trapped between the need to prevent the economy from slipping back into recession and Japan's huge public debt, already nearing 200 percent of GDP.
Sliding tax revenues mean government income now covers less than half of spending. Efforts to cut budget waste to find funds for new programmes have so far fallen short of target despite the Democrats' pledge to boost growth without issuing much more debt.
The appointment of Naoto Kan as finance minister this month raised doubts about government resolve to hold down spending given his concern about deflation and the recovery, but Kan has also said fiscal discipline is needed.
Standard Poor's on Tuesday cut its outlook on Japan's AA long-term sovereign debt rating to negative, saying the policy bind could lead to a downgrade unless measures were taken to stem fiscal and deflationary pressure.
The sovereign credit default swap spread widened on the news, but the impact on JGBs <0#jpbmk=> was limited because the vast majority are held by domestic investors. By making JGBs less attractive to foreigners, the downgrade will be a long-term drag on JGB prices, however, analysts said.
What to watch:
-- The government aims to release a mid-term fiscal reform plan by May or June and to unveil a growth strategy in June.
-- Data showing a risk of persistent deflation could prompt calls for extra stimulus ahead of the upper house poll, although the government would be sensitive to any rises in bond yields.
-- A political funding scandal embroiling Democratic Party Secretary-General Ichiro Ozawa could also tempt the government to spend more to woo voters turned off by the affair.
* PRESSURE ON CENTRAL BANK?
The Bank of Japan said this week deflation would be milder than previously forecast but left the door open to further easing to support a fragile economic recovery. December data showed the biggest drop in consumer prices on record.
Kan, a vocal BOJ critic, said this week the BOJ could do more to fight deflation. The central bank could face extra pressure if the economy falters ahead of the mid-year upper house poll.
The government criticised the BOJ for being too rosy on the economy when the bank upgraded its assessment in November. The BOJ later caved in to pressure and last month adopted a new fund supply operation at which it offers 10 trillion yen ($111 billion) in three-months loans to banks at 0.1 percent. It then declared that it wouldn't tolerate deflation.
The BOJ is independent by law but is required to work closely with the government to align policy. Tension over strategy raise the risks for markets, making policy harder to forecast.
What to watch:
-- Persistent deflation could pressure the BOJ to buy more government bonds or expand the new fund supply operation. Increased JGB purchases would push up bond prices and so bring down long-term interest rates.
-- Government rhetoric on the role of the central bank will give clues on how much influence the Democrats will seek to have.
* YEN INTERVENTION
Finance Minister Kan's early comments have led some analysts to argue the government will be less tolerant of a rising yen, although others say intervention is highly unlikely for now.
Kan jolted markets in his first news briefing as finance chief, saying he hoped the yen would weaken further and that many Japanese firms were in favour of dollar/yen around 95 yen 


