(NSI News Source Info) NEW DELHI - November 30, 2008: Outrage in India over the Mumbai attacks risks sparking a dangerous escalation in tensions with Pakistan, analysts say, even as Islamabad cautions against any knee-jerk reaction. Having accused "elements in Pakistan" of involvement in the ruthless attacks that left 195 dead in India's financial capital, the government here is now under extreme public pressure to exact some form of visible retribution.
The two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals are past masters of the art of military and diplomatic brinkmanship, but the stakes are heightened by looming general elections in India in which national security will be a key issue. In a televised address to the nation on Thursday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh vowed that the perpetrators and organisers of the Mumbai assault would be made to pay "a heavy price".
On Saturday, Singh called a meeting of India's army, navy and air force chiefs. But while India would like to lean heavily on Islamabad to ensure it delivers on repeated promises to prevent Pakistani territory being used for anti-India activities, analysts say the government's options are limited.
Pakistani protesters shout anti-terror slogans in Lahore. The demonstration was organised after the terrorist attacks in the Indian city of Mumbai. Outrage in India over the Mumbai attacks risks sparking a dangerous escalation in tensions with Pakistan, analysts say, even as Islamabad cautions against any knee-jerk reaction
Former national security adviser Brajesh Mishra said New Delhi would be constrained by a lack of proof that Islamabad had any direct role in the attacks. "There is little to suggest that the gunmen were sponsored by the Pakistani government," Mishra said. The scale and style of the assaults -- involving multiple targets and hostage-taking -- bore "the hallmarks of Al-Qaeda attacks in the Middle East and North Africa," Mishra said.
"These are new elements that differentiate the Mumbai attacks from the parliament attack." In 2001, gunmen from the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group attacked the Indian parliament, resulting in the complete rupture of diplomatic ties and pushing the rivals to the brink of war.
Supporters of the Pakistan Awami Tehrik (Pakistan People's Movement) march against the Indian government's claim that Pakistani based militants were behind the Mumbai attacks at a rally in Lahore November 30, 2008. Pakistan's government has begun rallying support both at home and abroad as tension flared with old rival India after a bloody militant assault on the Indian city of Mumbai
Former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal all but ruled out the possibility of India resorting to any cross-border military response. "The Indian leadership would have to weigh very carefully the consequences of using the military option in the wider context of peace and stability in the region," Sibal said.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari appealed for calm on Saturday and argued that any increase in Indian-Pakistani tensions would be a victory for the extremists. "Whoever is responsible for the brutal and crude act against the Indian people and India are looking for reaction," Zardari said in an interview with Indian CNN-IBN television.
"We have to rise above them and make sure ourselves, yourself and world community guard against over-reaction," he said. Kalim Bahadur, a retired professor of international relations, said India might find it difficult to take a hard line with Pakistan, given that Zardari's government was still finding its feet and itself battling Islamic militants.
"The Pakistani president's grip on power is not strong. We have seen that Zardari says things, then he is contradicted or he has to clarify what he has said. "The situation seems to be that the democratic government has no control over extremist elements," Bahadur said.
Independent security analyst K. Subrahmanyam suggested that a primary motive for the Mumbai attacks could well have been a desire to "wreck the peace process" launched by India and Pakistan in January 2004.
Given the targeting of foreigners by the Mumbai attackers, Subrahmanyam said New Delhi had an opportunity to rally international pressure on Islamabad to cut support to Islamist groups. Another analyst, C.Uday Bhaskar, urged Singh and his government to keep the engagement with Pakistan on track while carefully monitoring Islamabad's actions in the coming weeks. "Snapping links is not a desirable option," he said.
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